Houston Rockets at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints35
- Alperen SengunAssists7
- Kevin DurantRebounds8
Hornets- Grant WilliamsPoints20
- Brandon MillerAssists7
- Grant WilliamsRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game105–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter105–101
- Q41.1Hornets offensive team rebound105–101
- Q41.1Brandon Miller misses 34-foot three point jumper105–101
- Q43.2Dorian Finney-Smith enters the game for Reed Sheppard105–101
- Q43.2LaMelo Ball enters the game for PJ Hall105–101
- Q43.2Sion James enters the game for Ryan Kalkbrenner105–101
- Q43.2Hornets Full timeout105–101
- Q43.2Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2105–101
- Q43.2Grant Williams enters the game for Josh Green104–101
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:59Kevin Durant makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)HOU 65 – 65 CHA · HOU 48% → 58% +10HOU 48% → 58%+10 pts
- Q36:05Brandon Miller makes 22-foot running jump shot (LaMelo Ball assists)HOU 65 – 72 CHA · CHA 55% → 65% +10CHA 55% → 65%+10 pts
- Q34:41Jabari Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)HOU 72 – 74 CHA · HOU 40% → 51% +10HOU 40% → 51%+10 pts
- Q33:48Tidjane Salaun makes 27-foot three point jumper (LaMelo Ball assists)HOU 72 – 77 CHA · CHA 50% → 60% +11CHA 50% → 60%+11 pts
- Q48:20Dorian Finney-Smith makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alperen Sengun assists)HOU 89 – 84 CHA · HOU 65% → 78% +13HOU 65% → 78%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -4.5
- ML HOU -192 / CHA +160
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -2
- HOU 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −20.4 pts
- HOU: Elo 42.7%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -171
- CHA +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 111.5 – 107.0 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 218.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −11 | +6 | HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Missing Moussa Diabate −20, Miles Bridges −16 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | HOU crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHA +51 Elo | CHA 57.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 58.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 56.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30114.6 | Points scored | 115.715th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.6 | Points allowed | 113.811th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+5.0 | Margin | +1.911th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.4 | Offense rating | 114.810th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.3 | Defense rating | 112.915th of 30 |
| 28th of 3097.9 | Pace | 100.222nd of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 11th of 3015–13 | Road vs home | 12–1422nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149024th of 30 |
| 10th of 301564 | Elo rating | 154911th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
−11 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+6 Elo- Moussa Diabate suspended by league−20 Elo
- Miles Bridges suspended by league−16 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–30 | 33–22 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 19–29 | 9–6 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 24–16 |
| Overs–unders | 22–31 | 21–34 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 3–2 CHA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.