New Orleans Pelicans at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints27
- Saddiq BeyAssists5
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds11
Hornets- LaMelo BallPoints24
- LaMelo BallAssists5
- Kon KnueppelRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game95–102
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter95–102
- Q49.6Trey Murphy III makes 2-foot driving dunk95–102
- Q417.3Kon Knueppel makes free throw 2 of 293–102
- Q417.3Sion James enters the game for LaMelo Ball93–101
- Q417.3Kon Knueppel makes free throw 1 of 293–101
- Q417.3Saddiq Bey personal take foul93–100
- Q424.8Herbert Jones makes 26-foot three point jumper (Trey Murphy III assists)93–100
- Q437.9Brandon Miller out of bounds lost ball turnover90–100
- Q41:00Brandon Miller defensive rebound90–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q38:25Brandon Miller makes 27-foot three pointerNO 67 – 62 CHA · CHA 39% → 48% +9CHA 39% → 48%+9 pts
- Q34:05Trey Murphy III makes 31-foot three point jumper (Karlo Matkovic assists)NO 77 – 69 CHA · NO 55% → 66% +10NO 55% → 66%+10 pts
- Q32:57Collin Sexton makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotNO 77 – 76 CHA · CHA 47% → 58% +11CHA 47% → 58%+11 pts
- Q338.0Herbert Jones makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jose Alvarado assists)NO 82 – 78 CHA · NO 43% → 55% +12NO 43% → 55%+12 pts
- Q47:07Kon Knueppel makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshot (Ryan Kalkbrenner assists)NO 85 – 90 CHA · CHA 68% → 81% +13CHA 68% → 81%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -6.5
- ML NO +225 / CHA -278
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -8.5
- CHA 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.9 pts
- CHA: Elo 80.4%, market 70.5%
- Fair odds
- CHA -239
- NO +239 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 112.0 – 118.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1361 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +23 | +59 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +245 Elo | CHA 80.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 69.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 70.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 70.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.4 | Points scored | 116.214th of 30 |
| 28th of 30120.9 | Points allowed | 114.612th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−6.5 | Margin | +1.713th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.0 | Offense rating | 115.29th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.3 | Defense rating | 113.518th of 30 |
| 13th of 30102.3 | Pace | 100.322nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 27th of 305–19 | Road vs home | 10–1321st of 30 |
| 4th of 301520 | Opponent Elo | 148526th of 30 |
| 27th of 301361 | Elo rating | 153413th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 27–24 | 29–21 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–0 | 6–6 |
| Underdog | 22–24 | 23–15 |
| Overs–unders | 26–25 | 20–30 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 4–1 CHA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.