Washington Wizards at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Tre JohnsonPoints26
- Bub CarringtonAssists8
- Justin ChampagnieRebounds11
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints21
- LaMelo BallAssists11
- Moussa DiabateRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–119
- Q40.0Wizards offensive team rebound115–119
- Q40.0Tre Johnson misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot115–119
- Q42.4Tre Johnson enters the game for Anthony Gill115–119
- Q42.4Will Riley enters the game for Jamir Watkins115–119
- Q42.4Wizards Full timeout115–119
- Q42.4Miles Bridges makes free throw 2 of 2115–119
- Q42.4Anthony Gill enters the game for Tre Johnson115–118
- Q42.4Miles Bridges makes free throw 1 of 2115–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:09Bub Carrington makes 26-foot three point jumper (Justin Champagnie assists)WSH 106 – 110 CHA · WSH 7% → 17% +10WSH 7% → 17%+10 pts
- Q43:29Alex Sarr makes 2-foot alley oop dunk (Jamir Watkins assists)WSH 108 – 112 CHA · WSH 8% → 16% +8WSH 8% → 16%+8 pts
- Q43:04Miles Bridges makes 1-foot driving dunkWSH 108 – 114 CHA · CHA 85% → 93% +8CHA 85% → 93%+8 pts
- Q41:53Jamir Watkins makes tip shotWSH 112 – 114 CHA · WSH 11% → 24% +13WSH 11% → 24%+13 pts
- Q41:34LaMelo Ball makes 3-foot driving floating jump shotWSH 112 – 116 CHA · CHA 77% → 90% +14CHA 77% → 90%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -11.5
- ML WSH +390 / CHA -520
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -10.5
- CHA 85%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.3 pts
- CHA: Elo 84.7%, market 80.4%
- Fair odds
- CHA -411
- WSH +411 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 110.0 – 121.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1304 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −35 | +31 | WSH: Missing Marvin Bagley III −19, Khris Middleton −17 · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +298 Elo | CHA 84.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHA 81.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 81.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 80.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30112.2 | Points scored | 115.918th of 30 |
| 29th of 30123.2 | Points allowed | 115.515th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.0 | Margin | +0.415th of 30 |
| 28th of 30108.4 | Offense rating | 114.710th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.0 | Defense rating | 114.219th of 30 |
| 9th of 30103.0 | Pace | 100.421st of 30 |
| 29th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 28th of 304–18 | Road vs home | 7–1326th of 30 |
| 7th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 148624th of 30 |
| 30th of 301304 | Elo rating | 149914th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−35 Elo- Marvin Bagley III back muscle strain−19 Elo
- Khris Middleton left foot−17 Elo
Hornets
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–26 | 26–19 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 4–4 |
| Underdog | 16–24 | 22–15 |
| Overs–unders | 21–22 | 18–27 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 6–4 CHA in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.
- Dec 23WSH 109 @ CHA 126Picked CHA 69%Hit
- Oct 26CHA 139 @ WSH 113Picked WSH 53%Miss
- Mar 1WSH 113 @ CHA 100Picked CHA 61%Miss
- Feb 3WSH 124 @ CHA 114Picked CHA 62%Miss
- Dec 26CHA 110 @ WSH 113Picked CHA 63%Miss
- Dec 19CHA 114 @ WSH 123Picked CHA 59%Miss
- Mar 8CHA 100 @ WSH 112Picked CHA 53%Miss
- Nov 22WSH 114 @ CHA 117Picked CHA 66%Hit