Charlotte Hornets at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Brandon MillerPoints23
- LaMelo BallAssists6
- Tidjane SalaunRebounds11
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints16
- Jalen PickettAssists7
- Spencer JonesRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–87
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–87
- Q424.4Jalen Pickett makes 26-foot three point jumper (Hunter Tyson assists)110–87
- Q437.0Ryan Kalkbrenner makes dunk (Sion James assists)110–84
- Q459.4Julian Strawther makes driving layup (Zeke Nnaji assists)108–84
- Q41:10shot clock turnover108–82
- Q41:10Tidjane Salaun offensive rebound108–82
- Q41:10Ryan Kalkbrenner misses 6-foot floating jump shot108–82
- Q41:31Sion James defensive rebound108–82
- Q41:34DaRon Holmes II misses free throw 2 of 2108–82
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:39Brandon Miller makes 26-foot three point jumper (Kon Knueppel assists)CHA 3 – 0 DEN · CHA 55% → 61% +6CHA 55% → 61%+6 pts
- Q19:56Kon Knueppel makes 27-foot three point jumper (Brandon Miller assists)CHA 8 – 2 DEN · CHA 61% → 67% +6CHA 61% → 67%+6 pts
- Q19:35Jalen Pickett makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jamal Murray assists)CHA 8 – 5 DEN · DEN 33% → 39% +6DEN 33% → 39%+6 pts
- Q18:45Kon Knueppel makes 23-foot running jump shot (LaMelo Ball assists)CHA 11 – 5 DEN · CHA 61% → 67% +6CHA 61% → 67%+6 pts
- Q17:30LaMelo Ball makes 26-foot three point jumper (Moussa Diabate assists)CHA 14 – 7 DEN · CHA 63% → 69% +6CHA 63% → 69%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hornets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- CHA -2.5
- ML CHA -135 / DEN +114
- Pre-line forecast
- CHA 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -2
- CHA 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.6 pts
- CHA: Elo 41.6%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- CHA -123
- DEN +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 114.0 – 111.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1460 | 1636 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | DEN and CHA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +42 | −123 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Missing Aaron Gordon −39 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | CHA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +59 Elo | DEN 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 53.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHA 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30116.6 | Points scored | 122.51st of 30 |
| 18th of 30117.1 | Points allowed | 117.219th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +5.45th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.8 | Offense rating | 121.01st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.3 | Defense rating | 115.724th of 30 |
| 20th of 30100.8 | Pace | 100.325th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 308–15 | Road vs home | 12–611th of 30 |
| 27th of 301481 | Opponent Elo | 148326th of 30 |
| 20th of 301460 | Elo rating | 16363rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
−123 Elo- Aaron Gordon right hamstring strain−39 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 24–18 | 25–17 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 16–14 |
| Underdog | 21–14 | 9–3 |
| Overs–unders | 18–24 | 27–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 0–5 DEN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.