Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints35
- Jamal MurrayAssists9
- Peyton WatsonRebounds7
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints31
- Derik QueenAssists5
- Derik QueenRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–116
- Q42.4Peyton Watson makes free throw 2 of 2122–116
- Q42.4Peyton Watson makes free throw 1 of 2121–116
- Q42.4Saddiq Bey personal take foul120–116
- Q43.1Trey Murphy III makes driving layup120–116
- Q48.6Jamal Murray makes free throw 2 of 2120–114
- Q48.6Jamal Murray makes free throw 1 of 2119–114
- Q48.6Zion Williamson personal take foul118–114
- Q49.4Jamal Murray enters the game for Zeke Nnaji118–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:45Jamal Murray makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotDEN 109 – 110 NO · DEN 24% → 44% +20DEN 24% → 44%+20 pts
- Q43:08Jalen Pickett makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)DEN 112 – 110 NO · DEN 43% → 67% +24DEN 43% → 67%+24 pts
- Q41:58Jamal Murray makes 15-foot floating jump shotDEN 114 – 112 NO · DEN 51% → 71% +20DEN 51% → 71%+20 pts
- Q41:02Trey Murphy III makes driving layup (Derik Queen assists)DEN 114 – 114 NO · NO 23% → 49% +26NO 23% → 49%+26 pts
- Q439.4Peyton Watson makes 14-foot two point shot (Jamal Murray assists)DEN 116 – 114 NO · DEN 51% → 82% +31DEN 51% → 82%+31 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -2.5
- ML DEN -135 / NO +114
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3.5
- DEN 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +8.1 pts
- DEN: Elo 63.2%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- DEN -123
- NO +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 118.5 – 116.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1621 | 1337 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −112 | +30 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DEN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +94 Elo | DEN 63.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 56.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30122.7 | Points scored | 114.921st of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.5 | Points allowed | 122.428th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+5.2 | Margin | −7.526th of 30 |
| 1st of 30121.1 | Offense rating | 110.624th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 117.927th of 30 |
| 25th of 30100.3 | Pace | 102.810th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3015–7 | Road vs home | 6–1729th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 15165th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301621 | Elo rating | 133729th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−112 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 23–16 | 21–20 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 15–13 | 3–0 |
| Underdog | 8–3 | 18–20 |
| Overs–unders | 24–15 | 22–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 7–2 NO in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Nov 19DEN 125 @ NO 118Picked DEN 81%Hit
- Oct 29NO 88 @ DEN 122Picked DEN 82%Hit
- Feb 5NO 119 @ DEN 144Picked DEN 82%Hit
- Feb 3NO 113 @ DEN 125Picked DEN 77%Hit
- Dec 22DEN 132 @ NO 129Picked DEN 74%Hit
- Nov 15DEN 94 @ NO 101Picked DEN 55%Miss
- Jan 12NO 113 @ DEN 125Picked DEN 55%Hit
- Nov 17DEN 110 @ NO 115Picked DEN 69%Miss