New Orleans Pelicans at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints22
- Trey Murphy IIIAssists6
- Trey Murphy IIIRebounds7
Magic- Desmond BanePoints27
- Paolo BancheroAssists8
- Goga BitadzeRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–128
- Q415.5Paolo Banchero defensive rebound118–128
- Q419.3Trey Murphy III misses 32-foot three point pullup jump shot118–128
- Q423.7Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2118–128
- Q423.7Desmond Bane makes free throw 1 of 2118–127
- Q423.7Jeremiah Fears personal take foul118–126
- Q426.2Trey Murphy III lost ball turnover (Goga Bitadze steals)118–126
- Q434.1Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2118–126
- Q434.1Desmond Bane makes free throw 1 of 2118–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:51Bryce McGowens makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotNO 110 – 104 ORL · NO 57% → 72% +14NO 57% → 72%+14 pts
- Q47:22Anthony Black makes 23-foot three point jumper (Noah Penda assists)NO 110 – 107 ORL · ORL 27% → 42% +15ORL 27% → 42%+15 pts
- Q44:52Jeremiah Fears makes 22-foot three point jumper (Bryce McGowens assists)NO 115 – 113 ORL · NO 37% → 57% +19NO 37% → 57%+19 pts
- Q44:28Paolo Banchero makes 3-foot layup (Anthony Black assists)NO 115 – 115 ORL · ORL 42% → 56% +14ORL 42% → 56%+14 pts
- Q43:58Goga Bitadze makes tip shotNO 115 – 118 ORL · ORL 63% → 75% +13ORL 63% → 75%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -7.5
- ML NO +210 / ORL -258
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -6.5
- ORL 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.2 pts
- ORL: Elo 73.3%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- ORL -223
- NO +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 114.5 – 122.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1341 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +13 | +4 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +175 Elo | ORL 73.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 72.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 72.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.8 | Points scored | 115.917th of 30 |
| 28th of 30122.3 | Points allowed | 114.912th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.5 | Margin | +1.015th of 30 |
| 24th of 30110.4 | Offense rating | 112.718th of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.6 | Defense rating | 111.713th of 30 |
| 10th of 30102.9 | Pace | 102.016th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–14 | Road vs home | 12–610th of 30 |
| 5th of 301520 | Opponent Elo | 150111th of 30 |
| 29th of 301341 | Elo rating | 148915th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–19 | 15–24 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 3–0 | 10–18 |
| Underdog | 18–19 | 5–6 |
| Overs–unders | 21–19 | 19–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 0–4 ORL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.