Orlando Magic at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints31
- Anthony BlackAssists7
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds10
Bulls- Matas BuzelisPoints21
- Matas BuzelisAssists7
- Nikola VucevicRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–121
- Q40.1Magic offensive team rebound114–121
- Q42.2Anthony Black misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot114–121
- Q44.1Isaac Okoro makes 1-foot dunk (Patrick Williams assists)114–121
- Q412.5Matas Buzelis defensive rebound114–119
- Q415.7Paolo Banchero misses 25-foot three point jumper114–119
- Q422.8Matas Buzelis makes free throw 2 of 2114–119
- Q422.8Patrick Williams enters the game for Kevin Huerter114–118
- Q422.8Matas Buzelis makes free throw 1 of 2114–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:01Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three pointer (Goga Bitadze assists)ORL 100 – 95 CHI · ORL 65% → 77% +12ORL 65% → 77%+12 pts
- Q49:35Julian Phillips makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)ORL 100 – 98 CHI · CHI 23% → 35% +12CHI 23% → 35%+12 pts
- Q47:16Matas Buzelis makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ayo Dosunmu assists)ORL 102 – 105 CHI · CHI 45% → 60% +16CHI 45% → 60%+16 pts
- Q42:24Anthony Black makes 1-foot running dunk (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 110 – 113 CHI · ORL 14% → 27% +13ORL 14% → 27%+13 pts
- Q41:45Paolo Banchero makes 5-foot two point shotORL 112 – 115 CHI · ORL 10% → 23% +13ORL 10% → 23%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -5.5
- ML ORL -198 / CHI +164
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -3
- ORL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- ORL: Elo 62.0%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- ORL -175
- CHI +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 119.5 – 114.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1433 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +7 | −30 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Missing Zach Collins −6 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +85 Elo | ORL 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 59.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30116.6 | Points scored | 118.812th of 30 |
| 13th of 30114.9 | Points allowed | 122.327th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.7 | Margin | −3.522nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.2 | Offense rating | 112.918th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 116.425th of 30 |
| 14th of 30102.3 | Pace | 104.92nd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 13th of 308–9 | Road vs home | 9–816th of 30 |
| 6th of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 147727th of 30 |
| 13th of 301517 | Elo rating | 143321st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−30 Elo- Zach Collins right toe−6 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–20 | 16–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–15 | 3–13 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 13–4 |
| Overs–unders | 17–17 | 15–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 6–3 CHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.
- Dec 1CHI 120 @ ORL 125Picked ORL 76%Hit
- Oct 25CHI 110 @ ORL 98Picked ORL 68%Miss
- Mar 6CHI 125 @ ORL 123Picked ORL 74%Miss
- Nov 27CHI 119 @ ORL 133Picked ORL 77%Hit
- Oct 30ORL 99 @ CHI 102Picked ORL 67%Miss
- Apr 7CHI 98 @ ORL 113Picked ORL 63%Hit
- Feb 10CHI 108 @ ORL 114Picked ORL 57%Hit
- Nov 17ORL 103 @ CHI 97Picked CHI 52%Miss