New Orleans Pelicans at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints31
- Trey Murphy IIIAssists5
- Kevon LooneyRebounds10
Bulls- Isaac OkoroPoints24
- Tre JonesAssists12
- Jalen SmithRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–134
- Q49.7shot clock turnover118–134
- Q431.9Kevin Huerter defensive rebound118–134
- Q436.1Trey Murphy III misses 27-foot three point jumper118–134
- Q442.7Nikola Vucevic makes free throw 2 of 2118–134
- Q442.7Jeremiah Fears enters the game for Saddiq Bey118–133
- Q442.7Bulls offensive team rebound118–133
- Q442.7Nikola Vucevic misses free throw 1 of 2118–133
- Q442.7Jordan Poole shooting foul118–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q33:33Kevin Huerter makes 22-foot three point jumper (Patrick Williams assists)NO 85 – 91 CHI · CHI 62% → 72% +10CHI 62% → 72%+10 pts
- Q411:45Saddiq Bey makes 23-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)NO 93 – 97 CHI · NO 22% → 33% +10NO 22% → 33%+10 pts
- Q411:32Matas Buzelis makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)NO 93 – 100 CHI · CHI 68% → 78% +10CHI 68% → 78%+10 pts
- Q49:58Saddiq Bey makes 24-foot three pointer (Jeremiah Fears assists)NO 98 – 102 CHI · NO 20% → 31% +11NO 20% → 31%+11 pts
- Q49:39Matas Buzelis makes 24-foot three point jumper (Nikola Vucevic assists)NO 98 – 105 CHI · CHI 69% → 80% +11CHI 69% → 80%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -1.5
- ML NO +102 / CHI -122
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- CHI 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- CHI: Elo 49.7%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- CHI -111
- NO +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 123.5 – 125.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 248.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1365 | 1419 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +53 | −38 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Missing Zach Collins −7 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NO +2 Elo | NO 50.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 54.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30115.5 | Points scored | 118.312th of 30 |
| 28th of 30122.8 | Points allowed | 122.427th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−7.3 | Margin | −4.224th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 112.519th of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.5 | Defense rating | 116.526th of 30 |
| 13th of 30102.3 | Pace | 104.82nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–11 | Road vs home | 8–817th of 30 |
| 4th of 301527 | Opponent Elo | 148225th of 30 |
| 29th of 301365 | Elo rating | 141924th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+53 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
−38 Elo- Zach Collins sprained right toe−7 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–14 | 15–17 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–0 | 2–13 |
| Underdog | 18–14 | 13–4 |
| Overs–unders | 20–14 | 14–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 4–2 CHI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.