Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints30
- Collin GillespieAssists9
- Mark WilliamsRebounds13
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints20
- Zion WilliamsonAssists6
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–108
- Q40.1Pelicans offensive team rebound115–108
- Q40.3Derik Queen misses 9-foot tip shot115–108
- Q40.3Derik Queen offensive rebound115–108
- Q40.4Derik Queen misses free throw 2 of 2115–108
- Q40.4Pelicans offensive team rebound115–108
- Q40.4Derik Queen misses free throw 1 of 2115–108
- Q40.4(00:00.4) [Suns] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)115–108
- Q40.4Devin Booker shooting foul115–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:47Mark Williams makes alley oop dunk (Collin Gillespie assists)PHX 105 – 102 NO · PHX 62% → 77% +15PHX 62% → 77%+15 pts
- Q42:30Jordan Poole makes 8-foot two point shotPHX 105 – 104 NO · NO 22% → 38% +16NO 22% → 38%+16 pts
- Q42:13Dillon Brooks makes 11-foot pullup jump shotPHX 107 – 104 NO · PHX 62% → 79% +16PHX 62% → 79%+16 pts
- Q41:47Zion Williamson makes driving layup (Jordan Poole assists)PHX 107 – 106 NO · NO 19% → 37% +18NO 19% → 37%+18 pts
- Q41:07Collin Gillespie makes 11-foot pullup jump shotPHX 109 – 106 NO · PHX 65% → 86% +21PHX 65% → 86%+21 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -5.5
- ML PHX -198 / NO +164
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -3.5
- PHX 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- PHX: Elo 63.8%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- PHX -175
- NO +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 123.5 – 118.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1380 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +3 | +38 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +99 Elo | PHX 63.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 60.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.9 | Points scored | 115.519th of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.9 | Points allowed | 122.828th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.0 | Margin | −7.326th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.1 | Offense rating | 111.423rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 118.428th of 30 |
| 21st of 30101.1 | Pace | 102.313th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 16th of 306–8 | Road vs home | 6–1225th of 30 |
| 5th of 301526 | Opponent Elo | 15323rd of 30 |
| 10th of 301562 | Elo rating | 138029th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–10 | 19–12 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 9–2 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 17–12 |
| Overs–unders | 14–15 | 19–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 4–3 NO in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.