Minnesota Timberwolves at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Naz ReidPoints33
- Julius RandleAssists14
- Rudy GobertRebounds10
Bulls- Nikola VucevicPoints23
- Ayo DosunmuAssists7
- Jalen SmithRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game136–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter136–101
- Q420.6Ayo Dosunmu makes 1-foot two point shot (Patrick Williams assists)136–101
- Q424.1Patrick Williams defensive rebound136–99
- Q427.6Johnny Juzang misses 23-foot three point jumper136–99
- Q435.6Ayo Dosunmu makes two point shot136–99
- Q435.6Ayo Dosunmu offensive rebound136–97
- Q436.6Dalen Terry misses two point shot136–97
- Q440.0Julian Phillips defensive rebound136–97
- Q442.6Patrick Williams blocks Leonard Miller 's 1-foot driving layup136–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:54Matas Buzelis makes 25-foot three pointerMIN 30 – 36 CHI · CHI 44% → 52% +8CHI 44% → 52%+8 pts
- Q26:41Jalen Smith makes 23-foot running jump shot (Josh Giddey assists)MIN 32 – 39 CHI · CHI 47% → 55% +8CHI 47% → 55%+8 pts
- Q25:32Anthony Edwards makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotMIN 37 – 43 CHI · MIN 39% → 47% +8MIN 39% → 47%+8 pts
- Q25:09Anthony Edwards makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotMIN 40 – 43 CHI · MIN 47% → 55% +8MIN 47% → 55%+8 pts
- Q310:27Donte DiVincenzo makes 25-foot running jump shot (Julius Randle assists)MIN 60 – 55 CHI · MIN 67% → 74% +8MIN 67% → 74%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -6.5
- ML MIN -218 / CHI +180
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -3.5
- MIN 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 64.5%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -192
- CHI +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 125.0 – 118.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 243.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1584 | 1435 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | +28 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +103 Elo | MIN 64.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 65.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 65.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30118.8 | Points scored | 118.810th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.7 | Points allowed | 122.026th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.1 | Margin | −3.221st of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.0 | Offense rating | 113.017th of 30 |
| 5th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 116.124th of 30 |
| 13th of 30102.3 | Pace | 104.92nd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 8th of 308–6 | Road vs home | 8–716th of 30 |
| 13th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 147329th of 30 |
| 6th of 301584 | Elo rating | 143519th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–20 | 15–16 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–17 | 2–13 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 13–3 |
| Overs–unders | 15–17 | 14–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–2 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.