Milwaukee Bucks at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints29
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists9
- Bobby PortisRebounds11
Bulls- Nikola VucevicPoints16
- Josh GiddeyAssists9
- Zach CollinsRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–103
- Q40.0Bulls offensive team rebound112–103
- Q40.0Josh Giddey misses heave jump shot112–103
- Q41.9Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 1-foot running dunk112–103
- Q47.0Giannis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound110–103
- Q410.2Kevin Huerter misses 26-foot three point jumper110–103
- Q416.8Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2110–103
- Q416.8Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2109–103
- Q416.8Coby White personal take foul108–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:18Nikola Vucevic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Isaac Okoro assists)MIL 62 – 59 CHI · CHI 26% → 43% +17CHI 26% → 43%+17 pts
- Q35:25Josh Giddey makes two point shotMIL 66 – 67 CHI · CHI 38% → 55% +17CHI 38% → 55%+17 pts
- Q45:14Ryan Rollins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 95 – 91 CHI · MIL 55% → 73% +18MIL 55% → 73%+18 pts
- Q45:00Josh Giddey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Zach Collins assists)MIL 95 – 94 CHI · CHI 27% → 45% +18CHI 27% → 45%+18 pts
- Q44:38Ryan Rollins makes 26-foot three pointerMIL 98 – 94 CHI · MIL 56% → 74% +18MIL 56% → 74%+18 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -2.5
- ML MIL +105 / CHI -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -1.5
- CHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- CHI: Elo 55.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CHI -114
- MIL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 115.5 – 118.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1456 | 1446 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | CHI and MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +20 | +34 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +40 Elo | CHI 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 57.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30112.7 | Points scored | 119.410th of 30 |
| 16th of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 122.327th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.7 | Margin | −3.020th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 113.214th of 30 |
| 20th of 30115.1 | Defense rating | 116.124th of 30 |
| 26th of 30100.4 | Pace | 105.12nd of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–11 | Road vs home | 8–615th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301483 | Opponent Elo | 147627th of 30 |
| 17th of 301456 | Elo rating | 144618th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–17 | 15–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 2–12 |
| Underdog | 9–9 | 13–3 |
| Overs–unders | 13–18 | 14–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 6–3 CHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.
- Nov 7CHI 110 @ MIL 126Picked MIL 61%Hit
- Dec 28MIL 111 @ CHI 116Picked MIL 53%Miss
- Dec 23MIL 112 @ CHI 91Picked CHI 56%Miss
- Nov 20CHI 106 @ MIL 122Picked MIL 76%Hit
- Oct 25CHI 133 @ MIL 122Picked MIL 78%Miss
- Mar 1MIL 113 @ CHI 97Picked CHI 56%Miss
- Dec 11CHI 129 @ MIL 133Picked MIL 74%Hit
- Nov 30MIL 113 @ CHI 120Picked MIL 73%Miss