Milwaukee Bucks at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- AJ GreenPoints20
- Kevin Porter Jr.Assists5
- Bobby PortisRebounds12
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points24
- Ja MorantAssists10
- Jaren Jackson Jr.Rebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–125
- Q40.0Bucks offensive team rebound104–125
- Q40.0Andre Jackson Jr. misses driving floating jump shot104–125
- Q42.3shot clock turnover104–125
- Q426.0Cole Anthony bad pass
turnover (Cedric Coward steals)104–125
- Q428.0Thanasis Antetokounmpo defensive rebound104–125
- Q430.8Javon Small misses 11-foot floating jump shot104–125
- Q451.2Pete Nance out of bounds bad pass turnover104–125
- Q41:00Cedric Coward makes two point shot104–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:44Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 24-foot three pointerMIL 22 – 19 MEM · MEM 48% → 54% +7MEM 48% → 54%+7 pts
- Q143.6Myles Turner makes 27-foot three point jumper (Ryan Rollins assists)MIL 30 – 25 MEM · MIL 44% → 51% +7MIL 44% → 51%+7 pts
- Q125.6Ryan Rollins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Gary Harris assists)MIL 33 – 25 MEM · MIL 51% → 58% +7MIL 51% → 58%+7 pts
- Q26:01Cam Spencer makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotMIL 41 – 44 MEM · MEM 60% → 67% +7MEM 60% → 67%+7 pts
- Q39:46AJ Green makes 23-foot three point jumper (Bobby Portis assists)MIL 61 – 67 MEM · MIL 18% → 25% +7MIL 18% → 25%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -5.5
- ML MIL +154 / MEM -185
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -5
- MEM 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.8 pts
- MEM: Elo 69.0%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- MEM -165
- MIL +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 111.5 – 117.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1466 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −54 | +4 | MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MEM +139 Elo | MEM 69.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 65.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30113.0 | Points scored | 115.020th of 30 |
| 15th of 30116.2 | Points allowed | 116.216th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.1 | Margin | −1.217th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30111.8 | Offense rating | 110.925th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 112.012th of 30 |
| 26th of 30100.3 | Pace | 103.38th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–10 | Road vs home | 6–821st of 30 |
| 23rd of 301483 | Opponent Elo | 15109th of 30 |
| 17th of 301466 | Elo rating | 152312th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
−54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–16 | 14–16 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 5–8 | 8–4 |
| Underdog | 9–8 | 6–12 |
| Overs–unders | 12–18 | 11–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 0–4 MEM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 0 of 4.