Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints20
- Collin GillespieAssists7
- Oso IghodaroRebounds10
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints24
- Derik QueenAssists3
- Derik QueenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–114
- Q46.1Jeremiah Fears makes driving layup123–114
- Q418.4Dillon Brooks makes free throw 1 of 1123–112
- Q418.4Trey Murphy III shooting foul122–112
- Q418.4Dillon Brooks makes driving layup122–112
- Q425.2Jordan Goodwin enters the game for Oso Ighodaro120–112
- Q425.2Zion Williamson personal foul120–112
- Q436.4Jeremiah Fears makes free throw 2 of 2120–112
- Q436.4Oso Ighodaro enters the game for Jordan Goodwin120–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:32Dillon Brooks makes 23-foot three point jumper (Oso Ighodaro assists)PHX 76 – 71 NO · PHX 64% → 73% +9PHX 64% → 73%+9 pts
- Q32:18Trey Murphy III makes 24-foot three pointer (Jordan Poole assists)PHX 87 – 83 NO · NO 20% → 29% +9NO 20% → 29%+9 pts
- Q49:38Jamaree Bouyea makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jordan Goodwin assists)PHX 100 – 91 NO · PHX 80% → 88% +8PHX 80% → 88%+8 pts
- Q44:31Trey Murphy III makes 24-foot running jump shot (Saddiq Bey assists)PHX 107 – 104 NO · NO 13% → 27% +14NO 13% → 27%+14 pts
- Q43:42Devin Booker makes 25-foot three pointerPHX 111 – 106 NO · PHX 68% → 85% +17PHX 68% → 85%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -4.5
- ML PHX -185 / NO +154
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -4.5
- PHX 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- PHX: Elo 67.7%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- PHX -165
- NO +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 123.0 – 118.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1567 | 1374 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | NO and PHX on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +7 | +35 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHX +129 Elo | PHX 67.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 65.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 65.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30114.9 | Points scored | 115.320th of 30 |
| 9th of 30113.7 | Points allowed | 122.628th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −7.327th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.0 | Offense rating | 111.125th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 118.128th of 30 |
| 20th of 30101.2 | Pace | 102.413th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 13th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 6–1327th of 30 |
| 5th of 301523 | Opponent Elo | 15323rd of 30 |
| 9th of 301567 | Elo rating | 137429th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+35 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–10 | 19–13 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 10–2 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 17–13 |
| Overs–unders | 14–16 | 19–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 5–3 NO in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.
- Dec 26PHX 115 @ NO 108Picked PHX 64%Hit
- Nov 10NO 98 @ PHX 121Picked PHX 75%Hit
- Feb 28NO 108 @ PHX 125Picked PHX 75%Hit
- Feb 27NO 124 @ PHX 116Picked PHX 70%Miss
- Dec 5PHX 124 @ NO 126Picked PHX 53%Miss
- Apr 7NO 113 @ PHX 105Picked PHX 62%Miss
- Apr 1PHX 124 @ NO 111Picked NO 57%Miss
- Jan 19PHX 123 @ NO 109Picked NO 64%Miss