New York Knicks at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints28
- Jalen BrunsonAssists10
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds12
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints32
- Saddiq BeyAssists6
- Derik QueenRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game130–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter130–125
- Q41.1Pelicans offensive team rebound130–125
- Q41.1Saddiq Bey misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot130–125
- Q45.5Miles McBride makes free throw 2 of 2130–125
- Q45.5Miles McBride makes free throw 1 of 2129–125
- Q45.5Saddiq Bey personal foul128–125
- Q45.5Miles McBride defensive rebound128–125
- Q46.7Jordan Poole misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot128–125
- Q416.1Miles McBride makes free throw 2 of 2128–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:48Trey Murphy III makes 28-foot three point jumper (Derik Queen assists)NY 114 – 117 NO · NO 43% → 64% +22NO 43% → 64%+22 pts
- Q43:36Jalen Brunson makes 25-foot three pointerNY 117 – 117 NO · NY 35% → 57% +22NY 35% → 57%+22 pts
- Q42:28Miles McBride makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mikal Bridges assists)NY 120 – 119 NO · NY 38% → 65% +27NY 38% → 65%+27 pts
- Q435.0Jalen Brunson makes driving layupNY 126 – 123 NO · NY 71% → 93% +22NY 71% → 93%+22 pts
- Q425.1Zion Williamson makes 7-foot driving floating jump shotNY 126 – 125 NO · NO 4% → 27% +23NO 4% → 27%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NY -8.5
- ML NY -345 / NO +275
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -7
- NY 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.8 pts
- NY: Elo 75.2%, market 74.4%
- Fair odds
- NY -291
- NO +291 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 128.0 – 119.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 247.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1624 | 1368 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +25 | +52 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +193 Elo | NY 75.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 72.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 72.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 74.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.6 | Points scored | 115.220th of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.7 | Points allowed | 122.628th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+7.0 | Margin | −7.327th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30119.6 | Offense rating | 111.224th of 30 |
| 15th of 30112.7 | Defense rating | 118.328th of 30 |
| 24th of 30100.8 | Pace | 102.412th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 14th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 6–1427th of 30 |
| 24th of 301482 | Opponent Elo | 15284th of 30 |
| 4th of 301624 | Elo rating | 136829th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+52 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–15 | 19–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–12 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 17–14 |
| Overs–unders | 18–14 | 19–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 2–2 NO in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.