Orlando Magic at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints29
- Desmond BaneAssists6
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds11
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints26
- T.J. McConnellAssists8
- Aaron NesmithRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–110
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–110
- Q43.1Pacers offensive team rebound112–110
- Q43.1Aaron Nesmith misses 31-foot three point jumper112–110
- Q46.2Pacers Full timeout112–110
- Q46.2Pascal Siakam defensive rebound112–110
- Q47.5Paolo Banchero misses free throw 1 of 1112–110
- Q47.5Aaron Nesmith shooting foul112–110
- Q47.5Paolo Banchero makes driving layup112–110
- Q429.1Anthony Black enters the game for Goga Bitadze110–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:13Desmond Bane makes 11-foot two point shot (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)ORL 108 – 106 IND · ORL 53% → 69% +15ORL 53% → 69%+15 pts
- Q42:57Andrew Nembhard makes driving layup (Micah Potter assists)ORL 108 – 108 IND · IND 31% → 47% +16IND 31% → 47%+16 pts
- Q41:13Desmond Bane makes driving layupORL 110 – 108 IND · ORL 52% → 76% +24ORL 52% → 76%+24 pts
- Q429.1Bennedict Mathurin makes free throw 2 of 2ORL 110 – 110 IND · IND 29% → 49% +20IND 29% → 49%+20 pts
- Q47.5Paolo Banchero makes driving layupORL 112 – 110 IND · ORL 51% → 98% +47ORL 51% → 98%+47 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -4.5
- ML ORL -192 / IND +160
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -6
- ORL 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.9 pts
- ORL: Elo 73.0%, market 63.1%
- Fair odds
- ORL -171
- IND +171 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 117.0 – 112.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1394 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +12 | −64 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | IND crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +173 Elo | ORL 73.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 70.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 70.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 63.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30116.8 | Points scored | 110.129th of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.1 | Points allowed | 119.423rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.7 | Margin | −9.328th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 107.130th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 116.123rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30102.1 | Pace | 102.114th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 16th of 307–9 | Road vs home | 5–1227th of 30 |
| 6th of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 150610th of 30 |
| 14th of 301515 | Elo rating | 139427th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−64 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–19 | 16–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–14 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 14–14 |
| Overs–unders | 17–16 | 14–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 5–2 IND in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.