Indiana Pacers at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints33
- Andrew NembhardAssists16
- Pascal SiakamRebounds7
Heat- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Points28
- Nikola JovicAssists7
- Nikola JovicRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–142
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–140
- Q42.8Myron Gardner offensive rebound116–140
- Q45.8Simone Fontecchio misses 23-foot three point jumper116–140
- Q412.1Quenton Jackson vs. Simone Fontecchio (Keshad Johnson gains possession)116–140
- Q419.5Simone Fontecchio offensive rebound116–140
- Q421.5Kasparas Jakucionis misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot116–140
- Q438.9Nikola Jovic defensive rebound116–140
- Q441.9Kam Jones misses 23-foot three point jumper116–140
- Q450.2Kam Jones offensive rebound116–140
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:35Pelle Larsson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)IND 64 – 67 MIA · MIA 64% → 72% +8MIA 64% → 72%+8 pts
- Q36:17Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Pelle Larsson assists)IND 75 – 76 MIA · MIA 56% → 66% +10MIA 56% → 66%+10 pts
- Q35:57Andrew Nembhard makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotIND 78 – 76 MIA · IND 34% → 44% +10IND 34% → 44%+10 pts
- Q34:24Bennedict Mathurin makes 22-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 83 – 82 MIA · IND 31% → 41% +10IND 31% → 41%+10 pts
- Q34:07Bennedict Mathurin makes 24-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 86 – 82 MIA · IND 42% → 52% +11IND 42% → 52%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -6.5
- ML IND +220 / MIA -270
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -5.5
- MIA 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- MIA: Elo 70.4%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- MIA -234
- IND +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 113.5 – 120.0 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1407 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | MIA and IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −59 | −9 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Tyler Herro −26, Bam Adebayo −25 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +151 Elo | MIA 70.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 70.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 70.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30109.6 | Points scored | 119.59th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30118.4 | Points allowed | 117.417th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−8.8 | Margin | +2.011th of 30 |
| 30th of 30106.7 | Offense rating | 112.219th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30115.2 | Defense rating | 110.34th of 30 |
| 15th of 30102.1 | Pace | 106.01st of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–13 | Road vs home | 10–59th of 30 |
| 15th of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 15099th of 30 |
| 26th of 301407 | Elo rating | 147216th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
−9 Elo- Tyler Herro right toe−26 Elo
- Bam Adebayo low back soreness−25 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–16 | 17–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 13–13 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders | 12–19 | 14–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 4–3 MIA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.