Indiana Pacers at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints23
- Micah PotterAssists6
- Pascal SiakamRebounds4
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints30
- Amen ThompsonAssists7
- Jabari Smith Jr.Rebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–126
- Q411.4Quenton Jackson bad pass
turnover (JD Davison steals)119–126
- Q416.9Taelon Peter defensive rebound119–126
- Q419.5Aaron Holiday misses driving floating jump shot119–126
- Q441.3Quenton Jackson makes driving layup119–126
- Q442.9JD Davison bad pass
turnover (Quenton Jackson steals)117–126
- Q455.5Quenton Jackson makes free throw 2 of 2117–126
- Q455.5Quenton Jackson makes free throw 1 of 2116–126
- Q455.5JD Davison personal foul115–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q13:26Pascal Siakam makes 28-foot running jump shot (Aaron Nesmith assists)IND 19 – 18 HOU · IND 17% → 21% +5IND 17% → 21%+5 pts
- Q12:44Aaron Nesmith makes 27-foot three pointer (T.J. McConnell assists)IND 22 – 20 HOU · IND 18% → 23% +5IND 18% → 23%+5 pts
- Q12:25Kevin Durant makes 27-foot three point jumper (Reed Sheppard assists)IND 22 – 23 HOU · HOU 77% → 82% +5HOU 77% → 82%+5 pts
- Q11:37Jarace Walker makes 27-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)IND 25 – 26 HOU · IND 14% → 19% +4IND 14% → 19%+4 pts
- Q210:58Bennedict Mathurin makes 27-foot running pullup jump shotIND 30 – 30 HOU · IND 16% → 21% +5IND 16% → 21%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 83%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -12.5
- ML IND +455 / HOU -625
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -9.5
- HOU 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 81.8%, market 82.7%
- Fair odds
- HOU -478
- IND +478 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 105.5 – 118.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1396 | 1597 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −47 | −23 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +261 Elo | HOU 81.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 82.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 82.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 82.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30109.8 | Points scored | 120.36th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30119.2 | Points allowed | 111.73rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.4 | Margin | +8.62nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30106.6 | Offense rating | 119.72nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 111.17th of 30 |
| 14th of 30102.3 | Pace | 98.429th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 30th of 301–14 | Road vs home | 9–24th of 30 |
| 15th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 15098th of 30 |
| 27th of 301396 | Elo rating | 15975th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–17 | 17–12 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 15–12 |
| Underdog | 13–14 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 13–19 | 17–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 3–1 HOU in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.