Cleveland Cavaliers at Houston Rockets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors HOU; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Jaylon TysonPoints23
- Donovan MitchellAssists6
- Jaylon TysonRebounds15
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints30
- Reed SheppardAssists8
- Amen ThompsonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–117
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–117
- Q422.2Thomas Bryant makes 2-foot dunk100–117
- Q423.4Thomas Bryant offensive rebound98–117
- Q425.8Jaylon Tyson misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot98–117
- Q431.7Jeff Green makes 28-foot three point jumper (JD Davison assists)98–117
- Q453.1Tyrese Proctor makes 25-foot three pointer98–114
- Q41:01JD Davison makes 14-foot pullup jump shot95–114
- Q41:22Thomas Bryant makes two point shot95–112
- Q41:22Thomas Bryant offensive rebound93–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:07Darius Garland makes 30-foot three point jumper (Sam Merrill assists)CLE 10 – 7 HOU · CLE 45% → 52% +6CLE 45% → 52%+6 pts
- Q16:58Tari Eason makes 25-foot running jump shot (Amen Thompson assists)CLE 12 – 12 HOU · HOU 48% → 55% +7HOU 48% → 55%+7 pts
- Q16:02Jabari Smith Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)CLE 12 – 15 HOU · HOU 55% → 61% +7HOU 55% → 61%+7 pts
- Q28:16Jaylon Tyson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)CLE 36 – 38 HOU · CLE 34% → 41% +7CLE 34% → 41%+7 pts
- Q27:29Reed Sheppard makes 28-foot three pointerCLE 36 – 41 HOU · HOU 59% → 67% +7HOU 59% → 67%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -2.5
- ML CLE +114 / HOU -135
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -0.5
- HOU 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- HOU: Elo 52.3%, market 55.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -123
- CLE +123 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 114.5 – 117.0 HOU
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1583 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +18 | −32 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · HOU: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | HOU crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +16 Elo | HOU 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 51.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 55.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30120.2 | Points scored | 120.53rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.8 | Points allowed | 112.13rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+2.4 | Margin | +8.32nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.2 | Offense rating | 119.62nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 111.48th of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.5 | Pace | 98.428th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 15th of 306–7 | Road vs home | 8–25th of 30 |
| 28th of 301473 | Opponent Elo | 150811th of 30 |
| 12th of 301530 | Elo rating | 15838th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rockets
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–22 | 16–12 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 8–20 | 14–12 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 2–0 |
| Overs–unders | 16–16 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 1–4 HOU in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.