Denver Nuggets at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints34
- Nikola JokicAssists12
- Nikola JokicRebounds21
Magic- Anthony BlackPoints38
- Desmond BaneAssists6
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–127
- Q40.0Nuggets offensive team rebound126–127
- Q40.0Jamal Murray misses 21-foot fade away jump shot126–127
- Q46.9Tim Hardaway Jr. enters the game for Jonas Valanciunas126–127
- Q46.9Noah Penda enters the game for Tristan da Silva126–127
- Q46.9Nuggets Full timeout126–127
- Q46.9Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2126–127
- Q46.9Jonas Valanciunas enters the game for Bruce Brown126–126
- Q46.9Jonathan Isaac enters the game for Tyus Jones126–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q437.4Jamal Murray makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Nikola Jokic assists)DEN 124 – 123 ORL · DEN 33% → 69% +35DEN 33% → 69%+35 pts
- Q433.3Tristan da Silva makes 6-foot driving floating jump shot (Wendell Carter Jr. assists)DEN 124 – 125 ORL · ORL 30% → 68% +37ORL 30% → 68%+37 pts
- Q411.9Nikola Jokic makes free throw 1 of 2DEN 125 – 125 ORL · DEN 21% → 51% +29DEN 21% → 51%+29 pts
- Q46.9Desmond Bane makes free throw 1 of 2DEN 126 – 126 ORL · ORL 14% → 49% +35ORL 14% → 49%+35 pts
- Q46.9Desmond Bane makes free throw 2 of 2DEN 126 – 127 ORL · ORL 49% → 85% +36ORL 49% → 85%+36 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -3.5
- ML DEN -170 / ORL +142
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -4
- DEN 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.0 pts
- DEN: Elo 66.4%, market 60.4%
- Fair odds
- DEN -152
- ORL +152 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 119.5 – 116.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1657 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −22 | −17 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | DEN crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DEN +118 Elo | DEN 66.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 64.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 60.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30125.8 | Points scored | 116.815th of 30 |
| 17th of 30117.2 | Points allowed | 115.012th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.6 | Margin | +1.812th of 30 |
| 1st of 30123.2 | Offense rating | 113.312th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.8 | Defense rating | 111.610th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30101.0 | Pace | 102.314th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 1st of 3012–3 | Road vs home | 10–58th of 30 |
| 18th of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 15127th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301657 | Elo rating | 151414th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–12 | 13–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 15–10 | 9–13 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders | 20–10 | 16–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 3–2 ORL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.