Orlando Magic at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Anthony BlackPoints27
- Paolo BancheroAssists10
- Paolo BancheroRebounds15
Raptors- Jamal SheadPoints19
- Jamal SheadAssists5
- Collin Murray-BoylesRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–107
- Q41.2Magic offensive team rebound106–107
- Q41.2Paolo Banchero misses 28-foot three point step back jumpshot106–107
- Q46.0Desmond Bane enters the game for Tyus Jones106–107
- Q46.0Magic Full timeout106–107
- Q411.2Tyus Jones defensive rebound106–107
- Q415.1Brandon Ingram misses 12-foot pullup jump shot106–107
- Q435.6Collin Murray-Boyles defensive rebound106–107
- Q438.7Anthony Black misses two point shot106–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:46Scottie Barnes makes 26-foot three point jumper (Collin Murray-Boyles assists)ORL 102 – 100 TOR · TOR 22% → 37% +15TOR 22% → 37%+15 pts
- Q44:42Jamal Shead makes driving layup (Scottie Barnes assists)ORL 102 – 102 TOR · TOR 36% → 49% +13TOR 36% → 49%+13 pts
- Q44:07Brandon Ingram makes 15-foot step back jumpshotORL 102 – 104 TOR · TOR 49% → 63% +14TOR 49% → 63%+14 pts
- Q42:14Tristan da Silva makes 1-foot dunk (Anthony Black assists)ORL 104 – 105 TOR · ORL 24% → 41% +17ORL 24% → 41%+17 pts
- Q41:41Wendell Carter Jr. makes 13-foot jumper (Tyus Jones assists)ORL 106 – 105 TOR · ORL 40% → 61% +22ORL 40% → 61%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -1.5
- ML ORL -122 / TOR +102
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -2.5
- ORL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.2 pts
- ORL: Elo 59.8%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- ORL -111
- TOR +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 111.0 – 109.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1451 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −2 | +2 | ORL: Usual rotation · TOR: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +69 Elo | ORL 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 61.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 114.423rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.3 | Points allowed | 112.95th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.8 | Margin | +1.514th of 30 |
| 11th of 30113.7 | Offense rating | 112.619th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 111.17th of 30 |
| 15th of 30102.2 | Pace | 100.923rd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 14th of 307–8 | Road vs home | 9–715th of 30 |
| 6th of 301515 | Opponent Elo | 147628th of 30 |
| 14th of 301520 | Elo rating | 145118th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+2 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–18 | 15–18 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–13 | 8–12 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 7–6 |
| Overs–unders | 17–15 | 13–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 4–3 TOR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.