Orlando Magic at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints30
- Paolo BancheroAssists6
- Paolo BancheroRebounds14
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points34
- Egor DeminAssists5
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds7
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game104–103
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime104–103
- OT0.0(00:00) [Magic] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)104–103
- OT0.0Paolo Banchero makes 26-foot three point shot (Anthony Black assists)104–103
- OT2.1Michael Porter Jr. personal foul101–103
- OT3.6Magic Full timeout101–103
- OT3.6Tristan da Silva enters the game for Noah Penda101–103
- OT3.6Drake Powell enters the game for Egor Demin101–103
- OT3.6Magic Full timeout101–103
- OT5.3Egor Demin makes 25-foot three point shot101–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45.6Egor Demin makes 26-foot three point jumper (Day'Ron Sharpe assists)ORL 93 – 93 BKN · BKN <1% → 50% +50BKN <1% → 50%+50 pts
- OT1:07Egor Demin makes 27-foot three pointerORL 99 – 100 BKN · BKN 24% → 63% +39BKN 24% → 63%+39 pts
- OT16.2Wendell Carter Jr. makes dunk (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 101 – 100 BKN · ORL 25% → 76% +51ORL 25% → 76%+51 pts
- OT5.3Egor Demin makes 25-foot three point shotORL 101 – 103 BKN · BKN 11% → >99% +88BKN 11% → >99%+88 pts
- OT0.0Paolo Banchero makes 26-foot three point shot (Anthony Black assists)ORL 104 – 103 BKN · ORL 0% → 100% +100ORL 0% → 100%+100 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -2.5
- ML ORL -125 / BKN +105
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BKN -1.5
- ORL 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- ORL: Elo 44.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ORL -114
- BKN +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 111.5 – 109.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 220.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1409 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −6 | +47 | ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups · BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | BKN +41 Elo | BKN 55.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 53.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30116.9 | Points scored | 109.530th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 114.311th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −4.825th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 110.126th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 115.020th of 30 |
| 15th of 30102.3 | Pace | 99.427th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 16th of 308–11 | Road vs home | 5–1327th of 30 |
| 10th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 16th of 301497 | Elo rating | 140925th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–22 | 16–17 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–17 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 15–17 |
| Overs–unders | 19–18 | 14–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 7–2 BKN in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 9.
- Nov 14BKN 98 @ ORL 105Picked ORL 86%Hit
- Dec 29BKN 101 @ ORL 102Picked ORL 74%Hit
- Dec 1ORL 100 @ BKN 92Picked ORL 70%Hit
- Nov 29ORL 123 @ BKN 100Picked ORL 71%Hit
- Oct 25BKN 101 @ ORL 116Picked ORL 82%Hit
- Mar 13BKN 106 @ ORL 114Picked ORL 66%Hit
- Feb 27BKN 81 @ ORL 108Picked ORL 70%Hit
- Dec 2ORL 101 @ BKN 129Picked BKN 54%Hit