Houston Rockets at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Amen ThompsonPoints23
- Kevin DurantAssists11
- Tari EasonRebounds9
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints21
- Day'Ron SharpeAssists7
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–96
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–96
- Q415.5Josh Okogie defensive rebound120–96
- Q419.5Nolan Traore misses 24-foot three point pullup jump shot120–96
- Q429.1Aaron Holiday makes 23-foot three point jumper (JD Davison assists)120–96
- Q444.6JD Davison defensive rebound117–96
- Q446.8Danny Wolf misses two point shot117–96
- Q41:00Jae'Sean Tate makes two point shot117–96
- Q41:00Jae'Sean Tate offensive rebound115–96
- Q41:04Jabari Smith Jr. misses 24-foot three point jumper115–96
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:22Ziaire Williams makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cam Thomas assists)HOU 18 – 12 BKN · BKN 9% → 11% +3BKN 9% → 11%+3 pts
- Q210:23Reed Sheppard makes 26-foot three pointerHOU 31 – 24 BKN · HOU 85% → 89% +4HOU 85% → 89%+4 pts
- Q29:38Reed Sheppard makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Okogie assists)HOU 34 – 24 BKN · HOU 89% → 92% +3HOU 89% → 92%+3 pts
- Q26:12Josh Okogie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jabari Smith Jr. assists)HOU 44 – 32 BKN · HOU 91% → 94% +3HOU 91% → 94%+3 pts
- Q24:26Ziaire Williams makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Danny Wolf assists)HOU 46 – 37 BKN · BKN 6% → 9% +3BKN 6% → 9%+3 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -13.5
- ML HOU -600 / BKN +440
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4.5
- HOU 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.2 pts
- HOU: Elo 67.1%, market 82.2%
- Fair odds
- HOU -463
- BKN +463 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 115.5 – 102.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 217.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1600 | 1421 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +19 | +26 | HOU: Missing Steven Adams −7, Clint Capela −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · BKN: Missing Egor Demin −5 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | HOU crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +124 Elo | HOU 67.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 79.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 78.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 82.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30120.5 | Points scored | 109.730th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30112.0 | Points allowed | 113.98th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+8.6 | Margin | −4.225th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30120.0 | Offense rating | 110.126th of 30 |
| 7th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 114.417th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.3 | Pace | 99.627th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 10th of 3010–8 | Road vs home | 4–1230th of 30 |
| 11th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149120th of 30 |
| 5th of 301600 | Elo rating | 142124th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+19 Elo- Steven Adams sprained right ankle−7 Elo
- Clint Capela illness−2 Elo
Nets
+26 Elo- Egor Demin sore lower back−5 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–13 | 15–15 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–13 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 2–0 | 14–15 |
| Overs–unders | 18–12 | 13–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 2–3 BKN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.