Brooklyn Nets at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Day'Ron SharpePoints14
- Nolan TraoreAssists5
- Day'Ron SharpeRebounds9
Wizards- Justin ChampagniePoints20
- Alex SarrAssists4
- Marvin Bagley IIIRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game99–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter99–119
- Q417.9AJ Johnson enters the game for CJ McCollum99–119
- Q418.8shot clock turnover99–119
- Q437.1Bub Carrington defensive rebound99–119
- Q442.2Egor Demin misses two point shot99–119
- Q453.3Justin Champagnie makes tip shot99–119
- Q453.3Justin Champagnie offensive rebound99–117
- Q454.1CJ McCollum misses 8-foot floating jump shot99–117
- Q41:16Tre Johnson defensive rebound99–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:21Egor Demin makes 26-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)BKN 5 – 4 WSH · BKN 39% → 45% +6BKN 39% → 45%+6 pts
- Q110:02CJ McCollum makes 23-foot three pointerBKN 5 – 7 WSH · WSH 55% → 61% +6WSH 55% → 61%+6 pts
- Q16:50CJ McCollum makes 26-foot running jump shot (Bilal Coulibaly assists)BKN 12 – 20 WSH · WSH 67% → 73% +6WSH 67% → 73%+6 pts
- Q16:34Ziaire Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Egor Demin assists)BKN 15 – 20 WSH · BKN 27% → 33% +6BKN 27% → 33%+6 pts
- Q13:32Ziaire Williams makes 24-foot three pointer (Danny Wolf assists)BKN 22 – 26 WSH · BKN 29% → 35% +6BKN 29% → 35%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Wizards 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- WSH -2.5
- ML BKN +124 / WSH -148
- Pre-line forecast
- WSH 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- WSH -1
- WSH 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- WSH: Elo 54.2%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- WSH -134
- BKN +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 111.0 – 113.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1410 | 1331 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −15 | +29 | BKN: Missing Cam Thomas −19 · WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | WSH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | WSH +29 Elo | WSH 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | WSH 56.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | WSH 55.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | WSH 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30109.2 | Points scored | 113.225th of 30 |
| 9th of 30114.1 | Points allowed | 124.729th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−4.9 | Margin | −11.530th of 30 |
| 26th of 30110.0 | Offense rating | 109.127th of 30 |
| 19th of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 120.130th of 30 |
| 27th of 3099.3 | Pace | 103.19th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 18th of 306–8 | Road vs home | 4–1129th of 30 |
| 18th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150213th of 30 |
| 25th of 301410 | Elo rating | 133130th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
−15 Elo- Cam Thomas left hamstring - injury management−19 Elo
Wizards
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–16 | 13–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 14–16 | 13–17 |
| Overs–unders | 13–18 | 17–15 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 5–3 WSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.
- Nov 16BKN 129 @ WSH 106Picked WSH 55%Miss
- Mar 29BKN 115 @ WSH 112Picked WSH 54%Miss
- Feb 24BKN 99 @ WSH 107Picked BKN 56%Miss
- Feb 5WSH 119 @ BKN 102Picked BKN 66%Miss
- Mar 27BKN 122 @ WSH 119Picked WSH 53%Miss
- Dec 29BKN 104 @ WSH 110Picked BKN 59%Miss
- Dec 8WSH 97 @ BKN 124Picked BKN 74%Hit
- Nov 12WSH 94 @ BKN 102Picked BKN 63%Hit