Phoenix Suns at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Dillon BrooksPoints26
- Collin GillespieAssists6
- Oso IghodaroRebounds10
Wizards- Tre JohnsonPoints24
- CJ McCollumAssists4
- Bilal CoulibalyRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–101
- Q418.2Will Riley makes 26-foot three pointer115–101
- Q436.4Will Riley defensive rebound115–98
- Q438.9Rasheer Fleming misses 11-foot fade away jump shot115–98
- Q447.3Rasheer Fleming offensive rebound115–98
- Q450.3Jamaree Bouyea misses 16-foot step back jumpshot115–98
- Q41:04Rasheer Fleming enters the game for Collin Gillespie115–98
- Q41:04Khaman Maluach enters the game for Oso Ighodaro115–98
- Q41:04Isaiah Livers enters the game for Dillon Brooks115–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:56Tre Johnson makes 25-foot running jump shot (Will Riley assists)PHX 31 – 36 WSH · WSH 31% → 38% +7WSH 31% → 38%+7 pts
- Q27:39Collin Gillespie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Livers assists)PHX 34 – 36 WSH · PHX 62% → 69% +7PHX 62% → 69%+7 pts
- Q27:28Tre Johnson makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Bub Carrington assists)PHX 34 – 39 WSH · WSH 31% → 38% +7WSH 31% → 38%+7 pts
- Q26:05Bilal Coulibaly makes 25-foot three point jumper (CJ McCollum assists)PHX 36 – 42 WSH · WSH 34% → 42% +8WSH 34% → 42%+8 pts
- Q46:36Dillon Brooks makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshotPHX 102 – 93 WSH · PHX 87% → 94% +7PHX 87% → 94%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -10.5
- ML PHX -425 / WSH +330
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHX -7
- PHX 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- PHX: Elo 76.3%, market 77.7%
- Fair odds
- PHX -348
- WSH +348 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 122.0 – 111.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1573 | 1330 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −17 | +16 | PHX: Missing Mark Williams −25 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHX crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | PHX +203 Elo | PHX 76.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 78.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 78.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 77.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30115.1 | Points scored | 113.624th of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.7 | Points allowed | 125.429th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −11.830th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.3 | Offense rating | 109.127th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 120.430th of 30 |
| 20th of 30101.2 | Pace | 103.48th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 12th of 308–8 | Road vs home | 4–1029th of 30 |
| 6th of 301517 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 8th of 301573 | Elo rating | 133030th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
−17 Elo- Mark Williams suspended by league−25 Elo
Wizards
+16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 21–10 | 12–18 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–2 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 12–16 |
| Overs–unders | 14–17 | 17–13 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 4–0 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.