Memphis Grizzlies at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points31
- Ja MorantAssists7
- Santi AldamaRebounds10
Wizards- Alex SarrPoints20
- Bub CarringtonAssists7
- Justin ChampagnieRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–116
- Q40.1Grizzlies offensive team rebound112–116
- Q40.1Jaren Jackson Jr. misses 31-foot jump bank shot112–116
- Q44.7Cam Spencer enters the game for Christian Koloko112–116
- Q44.7Grizzlies Full timeout112–116
- Q44.7Khris Middleton makes free throw 2 of 2112–116
- Q44.7Christian Koloko enters the game for Jaylen Wells112–115
- Q44.7Alex Sarr enters the game for Tre Johnson112–115
- Q44.7Khris Middleton makes free throw 1 of 2112–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:14Justin Champagnie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Will Riley assists)MEM 91 – 95 WSH · WSH 45% → 59% +14WSH 45% → 59%+14 pts
- Q47:47Olivier-Maxence Prosper makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)MEM 94 – 97 WSH · MEM 29% → 44% +14MEM 29% → 44%+14 pts
- Q44:56Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Santi Aldama assists)MEM 100 – 104 WSH · MEM 17% → 32% +15MEM 17% → 32%+15 pts
- Q43:10Alex Sarr makes 2-foot two point shot (Bilal Coulibaly assists)MEM 104 – 108 WSH · WSH 60% → 75% +14WSH 60% → 75%+14 pts
- Q42:52Santi Aldama makes 23-foot three point jumper (Cam Spencer assists)MEM 107 – 108 WSH · MEM 24% → 47% +23MEM 24% → 47%+23 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -8.5
- ML MEM -290 / WSH +235
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -5
- MEM 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- MEM: Elo 68.7%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- MEM -249
- WSH +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 125.0 – 116.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1320 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +6 | +34 | MEM: Missing Jock Landale −2 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MEM crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MEM +137 Elo | MEM 68.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 70.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 70.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30115.4 | Points scored | 113.525th of 30 |
| 15th of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 125.829th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −12.330th of 30 |
| 24th of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 109.427th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 121.330th of 30 |
| 7th of 30103.3 | Pace | 103.010th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 12th of 308–8 | Road vs home | 3–1030th of 30 |
| 9th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 150016th of 30 |
| 11th of 301533 | Elo rating | 132030th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+6 Elo- Jock Landale sore right calf−2 Elo
Wizards
+34 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–16 | 11–18 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–4 | 0–2 |
| Underdog | 6–12 | 11–16 |
| Overs–unders | 12–19 | 17–12 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 3–2 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.