Washington Wizards at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Alex SarrPoints20
- Khris MiddletonAssists6
- Alex SarrRebounds11
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints33
- Ryan RollinsAssists7
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–113
- Q40.1Bucks offensive team rebound114–113
- Q40.4Giannis Antetokounmpo misses 13-foot jumper114–113
- Q41.0Justin Champagnie enters the game for Bub Carrington114–113
- Q41.0Bilal Coulibaly enters the game for Tre Johnson114–113
- Q41.0Kyle Kuzma enters the game for Myles Turner114–113
- Q41.0Bucks Full timeout114–113
- Q41.2CJ McCollum makes 16-foot pullup jump shot114–113
- Q46.5CJ McCollum defensive rebound112–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:48Bobby Portis makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kevin Porter Jr. assists)WSH 109 – 107 MIL · MIL 32% → 50% +17MIL 32% → 50%+17 pts
- Q42:02Ryan Rollins makes 26-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)WSH 110 – 110 MIL · MIL 28% → 57% +29MIL 28% → 57%+29 pts
- Q433.2Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 1 of 2WSH 110 – 112 MIL · MIL 72% → 86% +14MIL 72% → 86%+14 pts
- Q430.2CJ McCollum makes layup (Khris Middleton assists)WSH 112 – 113 MIL · WSH 5% → 28% +22WSH 5% → 28%+22 pts
- Q41.2CJ McCollum makes 16-foot pullup jump shotWSH 114 – 113 MIL · WSH <1% → >99% +99WSH <1% → >99%+99 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -10.5
- ML WSH +380 / MIL -500
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -6.5
- MIL 74%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.0 pts
- MIL: Elo 74.0%, market 80.0%
- Fair odds
- MIL -400
- WSH +400 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 112.0 – 122.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1324 | 1477 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +33 | +26 | WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +182 Elo | MIL 74.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 80.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 79.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 80.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30113.2 | Points scored | 113.026th of 30 |
| 29th of 30125.0 | Points allowed | 115.914th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−11.9 | Margin | −2.920th of 30 |
| 27th of 30109.0 | Offense rating | 112.022nd of 30 |
| 30th of 30120.4 | Defense rating | 114.919th of 30 |
| 9th of 30103.1 | Pace | 100.326th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 27th of 303–13 | Road vs home | 8–818th of 30 |
| 13th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 147927th of 30 |
| 30th of 301324 | Elo rating | 147717th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 12–19 | 16–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 6–8 |
| Underdog | 12–17 | 10–9 |
| Overs–unders | 17–14 | 14–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 2–6 MIL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Dec 1MIL 126 @ WSH 129Picked MIL 78%Miss
- Oct 22WSH 120 @ MIL 133Picked MIL 76%Hit
- Feb 21MIL 104 @ WSH 101Picked MIL 65%Hit
- Dec 21WSH 101 @ MIL 112Picked MIL 76%Hit
- Nov 30WSH 114 @ MIL 124Picked MIL 88%Hit
- Apr 2MIL 113 @ WSH 117Picked MIL 68%Miss
- Nov 24WSH 128 @ MIL 131Picked MIL 79%Hit
- Nov 20MIL 142 @ WSH 129Picked MIL 69%Hit