Orlando Magic at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Jase RichardsonPoints20
- Tyus JonesAssists5
- Jonathan IsaacRebounds8
Wizards- CJ McCollumPoints27
- CJ McCollumAssists5
- Bilal CoulibalyRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–120
- Q414.0Jonathan Isaac makes layup (Jase Richardson assists)112–120
- Q418.1Magic offensive team rebound110–120
- Q418.1Bub Carrington blocks Jett Howard 's 5-foot driving layup110–120
- Q422.3Bilal Coulibaly makes free throw 2 of 2110–120
- Q422.3Bilal Coulibaly makes free throw 1 of 2110–119
- Q422.3Jett Howard personal foul110–118
- Q429.2Jett Howard makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jase Richardson assists)110–118
- Q434.4Noah Penda defensive rebound107–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:09Jase Richardson makes 24-foot running jump shot (Tyus Jones assists)ORL 103 – 107 WSH · ORL 21% → 35% +14ORL 21% → 35%+14 pts
- Q45:03Goga Bitadze makes 2-foot dunk (Jett Howard assists)ORL 105 – 107 WSH · ORL 32% → 45% +12ORL 32% → 45%+12 pts
- Q44:46Alex Sarr makes 1-foot alley oop dunk (CJ McCollum assists)ORL 105 – 109 WSH · WSH 56% → 69% +12WSH 56% → 69%+12 pts
- Q44:11CJ McCollum makes 12-foot floating jump shot (Bub Carrington assists)ORL 105 – 111 WSH · WSH 71% → 81% +11WSH 71% → 81%+11 pts
- Q43:35CJ McCollum makes 24-foot three point jumper (Justin Champagnie assists)ORL 105 – 114 WSH · WSH 84% → 94% +10WSH 84% → 94%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -7.5
- ML ORL -290 / WSH +235
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -4
- ORL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- ORL: Elo 65.8%, market 71.4%
- Fair odds
- ORL -249
- WSH +249 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 121.5 – 114.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1335 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +1 | +27 | ORL: Usual rotation · WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +113 Elo | ORL 65.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 72.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 71.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 71.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30117.1 | Points scored | 113.425th of 30 |
| 13th of 30115.4 | Points allowed | 124.429th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.6 | Margin | −11.029th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 109.227th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.2 | Defense rating | 119.729th of 30 |
| 15th of 30102.2 | Pace | 103.29th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 15th of 308–10 | Road vs home | 5–1226th of 30 |
| 6th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 150510th of 30 |
| 15th of 301510 | Elo rating | 133529th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–21 | 14–20 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–16 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 5–5 | 13–18 |
| Overs–unders | 19–17 | 18–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 9–0 WSH in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 9.
- Nov 1ORL 125 @ WSH 94Picked ORL 76%Hit
- Apr 3ORL 109 @ WSH 97Picked ORL 90%Hit
- Mar 21ORL 120 @ WSH 105Picked ORL 75%Hit
- Feb 23WSH 90 @ ORL 110Picked ORL 85%Hit
- Nov 10WSH 94 @ ORL 121Picked ORL 83%Hit
- Mar 6ORL 119 @ WSH 109Picked ORL 73%Hit
- Dec 26ORL 127 @ WSH 119Picked ORL 61%Hit
- Dec 1WSH 125 @ ORL 130Picked ORL 78%Hit