Indiana Pacers at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints34
- Andrew NembhardAssists11
- Micah PotterRebounds10
Magic- Desmond BanePoints31
- Anthony BlackAssists10
- Paolo BancheroRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game127–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter127–135
- Q410.7Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound127–135
- Q414.2Anthony Black blocks Aaron Nesmith 's 30-foot three point pullup jump shot127–135
- Q417.6Pacers Full timeout127–135
- Q417.6Wendell Carter Jr. makes 2-foot dunk (Anthony Black assists)127–135
- Q424.5Paolo Banchero defensive rebound127–133
- Q428.0Ben Sheppard misses 23-foot three point jumper127–133
- Q437.5Micah Potter defensive rebound127–133
- Q439.7Anthony Black misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot127–133
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:07Micah Potter makes 27-foot three point jumper (Andrew Nembhard assists)IND 114 – 115 ORL · IND 24% → 37% +13IND 24% → 37%+13 pts
- Q46:54Paolo Banchero makes 23-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)IND 116 – 120 ORL · ORL 62% → 77% +14ORL 62% → 77%+14 pts
- Q45:56Anthony Black makes 25-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)IND 116 – 123 ORL · ORL 78% → 89% +11ORL 78% → 89%+11 pts
- Q42:55Andrew Nembhard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ben Sheppard assists)IND 123 – 126 ORL · IND 8% → 23% +14IND 8% → 23%+14 pts
- Q41:10Tristan da Silva makes 25-foot three pointer (Anthony Black assists)IND 127 – 133 ORL · ORL 86% → 98% +12ORL 86% → 98%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -6.5
- ML IND +200 / ORL -245
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 71%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -7
- ORL 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.2 pts
- ORL: Elo 75.3%, market 68.1%
- Fair odds
- ORL -213
- IND +213 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- IND 111.0 – 117.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | IND | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1387 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −55 | −5 | IND: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | ORL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +193 Elo | ORL 75.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 70.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 71.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 68.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| IND | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30110.1 | Points scored | 116.516th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30119.3 | Points allowed | 115.113th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−9.1 | Margin | +1.413th of 30 |
| 30th of 30106.8 | Offense rating | 113.217th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.5 | Defense rating | 111.810th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.5 | Pace | 102.314th of 30 |
| 30th of 300–10 | Last 10 | 4–623rd of 30 |
| 30th of 301–15 | Road vs home | 11–56th of 30 |
| 8th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15126th of 30 |
| 28th of 301387 | Elo rating | 150616th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pacers
−55 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
−5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  IND |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–18 | 14–21 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 9–16 |
| Underdog | 15–15 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 14–21 | 18–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
IND 2–6 ORL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
- Dec 31ORL 112 @ IND 110Picked ORL 63%Hit
- Apr 11ORL 129 @ IND 115Picked IND 61%Miss
- Nov 13IND 90 @ ORL 94Picked ORL 51%Hit
- Nov 6ORL 111 @ IND 118Picked IND 65%Hit
- Oct 28IND 115 @ ORL 119Picked ORL 65%Hit
- Mar 10IND 111 @ ORL 97Picked ORL 58%Miss
- Dec 23ORL 117 @ IND 110Picked IND 56%Miss
- Nov 19ORL 128 @ IND 116Picked IND 69%Miss