San Antonio Spurs at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- De'Aaron FoxPoints24
- Stephon CastleAssists8
- Stephon CastleRebounds8
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints23
- Andrew NembhardAssists6
- Pascal SiakamRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–113
- Q43.1shot clock turnover123–113
- Q427.7Kam Jones makes 7-foot two point shot123–113
- Q437.3De'Aaron Fox makes free throw 2 of 2123–111
- Q437.3Carter Bryant enters the game for Luke Kornet122–111
- Q437.3Ethan Thompson enters the game for Johnny Furphy122–111
- Q437.3Quenton Jackson enters the game for Pascal Siakam122–111
- Q437.3Kam Jones enters the game for Micah Potter122–111
- Q437.3Jarace Walker enters the game for Andrew Nembhard122–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:26Julian Champagnie makes 26-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)SA 14 – 20 IND · SA 44% → 50% +7SA 44% → 50%+7 pts
- Q14:03Kelly Olynyk makes 24-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)SA 21 – 20 IND · SA 59% → 65% +6SA 59% → 65%+6 pts
- Q12:20Johnny Furphy makes 23-foot three point jumper (T.J. McConnell assists)SA 21 – 25 IND · IND 39% → 46% +7IND 39% → 46%+7 pts
- Q210:56Jarace Walker makes 26-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)SA 32 – 34 IND · IND 35% → 42% +7IND 35% → 42%+7 pts
- Q29:51De'Aaron Fox makes 22-foot three point jumperSA 37 – 34 IND · SA 62% → 69% +7SA 62% → 69%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- SA -4.5
- ML SA -205 / IND +170
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 70%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -7
- SA 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.5 pts
- SA: Elo 75.0%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- SA -181
- IND +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 122.0 – 117.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1392 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +13 | −62 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | SA crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | SA +191 Elo | SA 75.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 69.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 69.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30119.7 | Points scored | 110.129th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 119.123rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+5.3 | Margin | −9.128th of 30 |
| 6th of 30117.1 | Offense rating | 106.830th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 115.622nd of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.9 | Pace | 102.413th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 0–1030th of 30 |
| 4th of 3011–5 | Road vs home | 5–1328th of 30 |
| 9th of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 150710th of 30 |
| 10th of 301555 | Elo rating | 139227th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−62 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–15 | 17–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–11 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 10–4 | 15–14 |
| Overs–unders | 17–17 | 14–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 2–2 IND in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.