Cleveland Cavaliers at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cavaliers- Jarrett AllenPoints27
- Darius GarlandAssists11
- Jarrett AllenRebounds10
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints26
- Stephon CastleAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–101
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–101
- Q49.0shot clock turnover113–101
- Q433.3Cavaliers defensive team rebound113–101
- Q433.3De'Aaron Fox misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot113–101
- Q440.1Darius Garland makes free throw 2 of 2113–101
- Q440.1Darius Garland makes free throw 1 of 2112–101
- Q440.1Julian Champagnie personal foul111–101
- Q440.7Stephon Castle makes driving dunk111–101
- Q446.2Dean Wade makes dunk (Darius Garland assists)111–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q411:26Jaylon Tyson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Craig Porter Jr. assists)CLE 79 – 80 SA · CLE 29% → 41% +12CLE 29% → 41%+12 pts
- Q410:18Jaylon Tyson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Craig Porter Jr. assists)CLE 84 – 82 SA · CLE 41% → 55% +13CLE 41% → 55%+13 pts
- Q410:01Jaylon Tyson makes 23-foot running jump shot (Craig Porter Jr. assists)CLE 87 – 82 SA · CLE 55% → 68% +13CLE 55% → 68%+13 pts
- Q48:41Donovan Mitchell makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jaylon Tyson assists)CLE 94 – 84 SA · CLE 78% → 87% +9CLE 78% → 87%+9 pts
- Q46:28Dylan Harper makes 24-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)CLE 96 – 89 SA · SA 9% → 18% +9SA 9% → 18%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- SA -3.5
- ML CLE +136 / SA -162
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -5.5
- SA 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- +12.0 pts
- SA: Elo 71.4%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- SA -146
- CLE +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 120.0 – 123.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 243.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +7 | +77 | CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +159 Elo | SA 71.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 61.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CLE | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 30119.5 | Points scored | 119.97th of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.8 | Points allowed | 114.010th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.8 | Margin | +5.97th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.9 | Offense rating | 117.56th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.2 | Defense rating | 111.79th of 30 |
| 8th of 30103.3 | Pace | 101.718th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 17th of 306–8 | Road vs home | 11–35th of 30 |
| 26th of 301479 | Opponent Elo | 150314th of 30 |
| 14th of 301516 | Elo rating | 15699th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Cavaliers
+7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+77 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 10–23 | 19–13 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–20 | 9–9 |
| Underdog | 2–3 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders | 16–17 | 16–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 5–0 SA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.