New York Knicks at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints29
- Jalen BrunsonAssists8
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds7
Spurs- Julian ChampagniePoints36
- De'Aaron FoxAssists7
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game132–134
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter132–134
- Q40.0(00:00) [Knicks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)132–134
- Q40.0Jalen Brunson makes 23-foot three point jumper132–134
- Q40.0Keldon Johnson lost ball turnover (Jalen Brunson steals)129–134
- Q42.6Keldon Johnson defensive rebound129–134
- Q46.0Miles McBride misses 23-foot three point jumper129–134
- Q47.3Miles McBride enters the game for Ariel Hukporti129–134
- Q47.3Tyler Kolek enters the game for Kevin McCullar Jr.129–134
- Q47.3Knicks Full timeout129–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:34Julian Champagnie makes 25-foot running jump shot (De'Aaron Fox assists)NY 116 – 116 SA · SA 33% → 53% +20SA 33% → 53%+20 pts
- Q42:53Miles McBride makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)NY 121 – 122 SA · NY 18% → 39% +21NY 18% → 39%+21 pts
- Q42:31Luke Kornet makes two point shotNY 121 – 124 SA · SA 61% → 77% +16SA 61% → 77%+16 pts
- Q41:59Miles McBride makes 21-foot running pullup jump shotNY 123 – 124 SA · NY 21% → 38% +17NY 21% → 38%+17 pts
- Q449.2Luke Kornet makes two point shotNY 123 – 126 SA · SA 67% → 89% +22SA 67% → 89%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- SA -3.5
- ML NY +136 / SA -162
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -0.5
- SA 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.1 pts
- SA: Elo 51.2%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- SA -146
- NY +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 116.0 – 119.5 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1627 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +26 | +76 | NY: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +9 Elo | SA 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 52.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30120.9 | Points scored | 119.38th of 30 |
| 10th of 30114.0 | Points allowed | 113.99th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+6.9 | Margin | +5.47th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30119.9 | Offense rating | 116.76th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 111.58th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.8 | Pace | 101.817th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 12th of 307–7 | Road vs home | 11–45th of 30 |
| 28th of 301479 | Opponent Elo | 150412th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301627 | Elo rating | 155010th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+76 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NY |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–16 | 19–14 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–13 | 9–10 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 10–4 |
| Overs–unders | 19–14 | 16–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 3–2 SA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.