Minnesota Timberwolves at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints35
- Jaden McDanielsAssists5
- Rudy GobertRebounds14
Wizards- CJ McCollumPoints20
- Alex SarrAssists4
- Justin ChampagnieRebounds6
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game141–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter141–115
- Q415.8Joe Ingles defensive rebound141–115
- Q417.8AJ Johnson misses driving layup141–115
- Q426.7Jaylen Clark makes free throw 2 of 2141–115
- Q426.7Jaylen Clark makes free throw 1 of 2140–115
- Q426.7AJ Johnson shooting foul139–115
- Q443.2Malaki Branham makes 26-foot running jump shot (AJ Johnson assists)139–115
- Q448.1Rob Dillingham lost ball turnover (Anthony Gill steals)139–112
- Q454.7AJ Johnson makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot139–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:48Tre Johnson makes 32-foot three pointerMIN 2 – 3 WSH · WSH 20% → 24% +5WSH 20% → 24%+5 pts
- Q18:43CJ McCollum makes 26-foot three point jumper (Alex Sarr assists)MIN 8 – 10 WSH · WSH 22% → 27% +5WSH 22% → 27%+5 pts
- Q16:25Anthony Edwards makes 23-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)MIN 19 – 14 WSH · MIN 80% → 84% +4MIN 80% → 84%+4 pts
- Q13:43Alex Sarr makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tre Johnson assists)MIN 23 – 21 WSH · WSH 16% → 21% +5WSH 16% → 21%+5 pts
- Q11:40Anthony Edwards makes 26-foot three point jumper (Mike Conley assists)MIN 30 – 23 WSH · MIN 82% → 86% +4MIN 82% → 86%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -10.5
- ML MIN -425 / WSH +330
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5
- MIN 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- MIN: Elo 69.8%, market 77.7%
- Fair odds
- MIN -348
- WSH +348 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 125.5 – 115.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1581 | 1346 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +19 | +33 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +145 Elo | MIN 69.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 79.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 79.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 77.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30118.9 | Points scored | 113.425th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.6 | Points allowed | 123.929th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.3 | Margin | −10.529th of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.3 | Offense rating | 109.227th of 30 |
| 5th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 119.329th of 30 |
| 15th of 30102.2 | Pace | 103.19th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 8th of 3010–7 | Road vs home | 5–1126th of 30 |
| 20th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150113th of 30 |
| 7th of 301581 | Elo rating | 134629th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 14–21 | 14–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 11–18 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 13–17 |
| Overs–unders | 16–19 | 17–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 2–8 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–1 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.