Minnesota Timberwolves at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints30
- Donte DiVincenzoAssists7
- Rudy GobertRebounds11
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints34
- Dyson DanielsAssists9
- Jalen JohnsonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–126
- Q43.5shot clock turnover102–126
- Q428.6Johnny Juzang makes 25-foot three pointer102–126
- Q437.3Johnny Juzang defensive rebound99–126
- Q440.6Mouhamed Gueye misses 13-foot turnaround jump shot99–126
- Q451.4Luke Kennard defensive rebound99–126
- Q454.3Rob Dillingham misses 16-foot step back jumpshot99–126
- Q41:05Asa Newell makes two point shot99–126
- Q41:06Asa Newell offensive rebound99–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:19Julius Randle makes 25-foot three pointerMIN 17 – 20 ATL · MIN 51% → 57% +7MIN 51% → 57%+7 pts
- Q14:57Anthony Edwards makes 26-foot three point jumper (Donte DiVincenzo assists)MIN 20 – 22 ATL · MIN 52% → 59% +7MIN 52% → 59%+7 pts
- Q12:02Kristaps Porzingis makes 27-foot three point jumper (Asa Newell assists)MIN 22 – 27 ATL · ATL 42% → 48% +7ATL 42% → 48%+7 pts
- Q210:49Kristaps Porzingis makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luke Kennard assists)MIN 28 – 38 ATL · ATL 54% → 62% +7ATL 54% → 62%+7 pts
- Q210:28Luke Kennard makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dyson Daniels assists)MIN 28 – 41 ATL · ATL 62% → 69% +7ATL 62% → 69%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -5.5
- ML MIN -205 / ATL +170
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -5
- MIN 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 69.8%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- MIN -181
- ATL +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 123.0 – 117.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1600 | 1424 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +24 | +19 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Missing Trae Young −27 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | MIN crossed 1 time zone and ATL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +146 Elo | MIN 69.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 65.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 65.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 30119.3 | Points scored | 119.111th of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.2 | Points allowed | 120.625th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+5.0 | Margin | −1.618th of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.5 | Offense rating | 113.811th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.6 | Defense rating | 115.320th of 30 |
| 13th of 30102.3 | Pace | 103.95th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 6th of 309–6 | Road vs home | 5–1126th of 30 |
| 17th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 149418th of 30 |
| 5th of 301600 | Elo rating | 142422nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+19 Elo- Trae Young right quad contusion−27 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–20 | 16–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 10–17 | 5–13 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 11–5 |
| Overs–unders | 15–18 | 20–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–2 ATL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.