Minnesota Timberwolves at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Anthony EdwardsPoints33
- Anthony EdwardsAssists5
- Rudy GobertRebounds12
Heat- Norman PowellPoints21
- Davion MitchellAssists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–115
- Q421.2Myron Gardner makes 24-foot running jump shot (Simone Fontecchio assists)125–115
- Q424.9Kasparas Jakucionis defensive rebound125–112
- Q429.1Rudy Gobert misses 23-foot three point jumper125–112
- Q449.3Kel'el Ware makes dunk (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)125–112
- Q458.4Mike Conley makes free throw 2 of 2125–110
- Q458.4Mike Conley makes free throw 1 of 2124–110
- Q458.4Kasparas Jakucionis personal foul123–110
- Q41:01Donte DiVincenzo defensive rebound123–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:57Norman Powell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)MIN 66 – 68 MIA · MIA 43% → 53% +10MIA 43% → 53%+10 pts
- Q36:39Jaden McDaniels makes 28-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)MIN 69 – 68 MIA · MIN 47% → 57% +10MIN 47% → 57%+10 pts
- Q33:47Mike Conley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaden McDaniels assists)MIN 76 – 74 MIA · MIN 50% → 61% +11MIN 50% → 61%+11 pts
- Q32:33Simone Fontecchio makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kasparas Jakucionis assists)MIN 81 – 79 MIA · MIA 29% → 39% +10MIA 29% → 39%+10 pts
- Q31:23Naz Reid makes 23-foot three point jumper (Julius Randle assists)MIN 88 – 82 MIA · MIN 65% → 75% +10MIN 65% → 75%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -2.5
- ML MIN -142 / MIA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -0.5
- MIN 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 48.5%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -129
- MIA +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 119.0 – 116.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +12 | +39 | MIN: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Tyler Herro −20 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIA +10 Elo | MIA 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 53.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30118.8 | Points scored | 120.93rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30114.6 | Points allowed | 117.419th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.2 | Margin | +3.59th of 30 |
| 8th of 30115.1 | Offense rating | 113.514th of 30 |
| 5th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 110.23rd of 30 |
| 15th of 30102.3 | Pace | 106.11st of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 11th of 309–7 | Road vs home | 12–56th of 30 |
| 18th of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 15087th of 30 |
| 7th of 301571 | Elo rating | 151714th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+39 Elo- Tyler Herro right toe−20 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 13–21 | 20–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–18 | 7–8 |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 13–6 |
| Overs–unders | 15–19 | 16–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–1 MIA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.