Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Norman PowellPoints36
- Davion MitchellAssists11
- Bam AdebayoRebounds14
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints31
- Cade CunninghamAssists11
- Cade CunninghamRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–112
- Q46.6Bam Adebayo defensive rebound118–112
- Q48.3Javonte Green misses driving layup118–112
- Q415.0Norman Powell makes free throw 2 of 2118–112
- Q415.0Norman Powell makes free throw 1 of 2117–112
- Q415.0Cade Cunningham personal take foul116–112
- Q427.6Ausar Thompson bad pass
turnover (Davion Mitchell steals)116–112
- Q428.9Pistons Full timeout116–112
- Q429.0Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 8-foot turnaround jump shot116–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:03Norman Powell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)MIA 56 – 50 DET · MIA 49% → 58% +8MIA 49% → 58%+8 pts
- Q49:09Marcus Sasser makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)MIA 98 – 92 DET · DET 17% → 28% +11DET 17% → 28%+11 pts
- Q47:12Marcus Sasser makes 25-foot three point jumperMIA 102 – 95 DET · DET 11% → 21% +10DET 11% → 21%+10 pts
- Q446.4Javonte Green makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)MIA 114 – 112 DET · DET 2% → 22% +20DET 2% → 22%+20 pts
- Q429.0Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes 8-foot turnaround jump shotMIA 116 – 112 DET · MIA 84% → 98% +14MIA 84% → 98%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DET -4.5
- ML MIA +154 / DET -185
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -2.5
- DET 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.7 pts
- DET: Elo 60.5%, market 62.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -165
- MIA +165 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 115.5 – 120.0 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1590 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +39 | +31 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −36 | DET crossed 3 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +74 Elo | DET 60.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 59.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 62.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30121.0 | Points scored | 119.110th of 30 |
| 19th of 30117.5 | Points allowed | 112.75th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+3.4 | Margin | +6.55th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.6 | Offense rating | 115.38th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 109.02nd of 30 |
| 1st of 30106.1 | Pace | 102.710th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 21st of 306–10 | Road vs home | 12–23rd of 30 |
| 8th of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 147130th of 30 |
| 16th of 301507 | Elo rating | 15906th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–14 | 18–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 7–8 | 13–14 |
| Underdog | 12–6 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders | 16–17 | 17–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–4 DET in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.
- Nov 29DET 138 @ MIA 135Picked MIA 61%Miss
- Mar 19DET 116 @ MIA 113Picked DET 61%Hit
- Dec 16MIA 124 @ DET 125Picked MIA 63%Miss
- Nov 12MIA 121 @ DET 123Picked MIA 52%Miss
- Oct 28DET 98 @ MIA 106Picked MIA 75%Hit
- Mar 17MIA 104 @ DET 101Picked MIA 55%Hit
- Mar 15MIA 108 @ DET 95Picked MIA 60%Hit
- Mar 5DET 110 @ MIA 118Picked MIA 77%Hit