Denver Nuggets at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints21
- Jamal MurrayAssists11
- Jamal MurrayRebounds6
Heat- Norman PowellPoints25
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Assists11
- Bam AdebayoRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–147
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–147
- Q40.1Nuggets offensive team rebound123–147
- Q41.2Curtis Jones misses 26-foot three point jumper123–147
- Q44.1DaRon Holmes II defensive rebound123–147
- Q48.3Keshad Johnson misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot123–147
- Q419.3Kasparas Jakucionis offensive rebound123–147
- Q422.8Simone Fontecchio misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot123–147
- Q436.0DaRon Holmes II makes free throw 2 of 2123–147
- Q436.0DaRon Holmes II makes free throw 1 of 2122–147
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:16Davion Mitchell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)DEN 58 – 60 MIA · MIA 45% → 53% +9MIA 45% → 53%+9 pts
- Q241.4Jamal Murray makes 24-foot three pointerDEN 61 – 61 MIA · DEN 44% → 52% +9DEN 44% → 52%+9 pts
- Q311:47Kel'el Ware makes 23-foot three point jumper (Andrew Wiggins assists)DEN 63 – 66 MIA · MIA 48% → 57% +9MIA 48% → 57%+9 pts
- Q310:17Norman Powell makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshotDEN 67 – 73 MIA · MIA 57% → 66% +9MIA 57% → 66%+9 pts
- Q39:47Kel'el Ware makes 25-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)DEN 69 – 76 MIA · MIA 60% → 69% +9MIA 60% → 69%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -1.5
- ML DEN -125 / MIA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -3
- DEN 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +9.5 pts
- DEN: Elo 62.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- DEN -114
- MIA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 123.0 – 121.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 244.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1651 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −19 | +23 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Tyler Herro −20 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +91 Elo | DEN 62.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 60.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 60.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30125.8 | Points scored | 120.26th of 30 |
| 20th of 30117.5 | Points allowed | 117.418th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+8.3 | Margin | +2.89th of 30 |
| 1st of 30123.3 | Offense rating | 112.718th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.2 | Defense rating | 110.13rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30101.0 | Pace | 106.11st of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3012–4 | Road vs home | 11–57th of 30 |
| 20th of 301488 | Opponent Elo | 150512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301651 | Elo rating | 148216th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+23 Elo- Tyler Herro right toe−20 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–13 | 18–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–11 | 7–8 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 11–6 |
| Overs–unders | 21–10 | 15–17 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 5–0 MIA in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.