Detroit Pistons at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints27
- Cade CunninghamAssists11
- Jalen DurenRebounds8
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints30
- Luka DoncicAssists11
- Jarred VanderbiltRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game128–106
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter128–106
- Q420.0shot clock turnover128–106
- Q432.3Ronald Holland II offensive rebound128–106
- Q435.6Adou Thiero blocks Ronald Holland II 's 4-foot running layup128–106
- Q437.6Marcus Sasser defensive rebound128–106
- Q442.3Nick Smith Jr. misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot128–106
- Q457.0Chaz Lanier makes free throw 2 of 2128–106
- Q457.0Chaz Lanier makes free throw 1 of 2127–106
- Q457.0Dalton Knecht personal foul126–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q310:55Isaiah Stewart makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)DET 73 – 67 LAL · DET 64% → 72% +8DET 64% → 72%+8 pts
- Q39:39Jake LaRavia makes 22-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)DET 73 – 72 LAL · LAL 33% → 42% +9LAL 33% → 42%+9 pts
- Q32:56Luka Doncic makes 30-foot three point step back jumpshotDET 86 – 84 LAL · LAL 28% → 39% +10LAL 28% → 39%+10 pts
- Q32:43Ronald Holland II makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaden Ivey assists)DET 89 – 84 LAL · DET 61% → 72% +10DET 61% → 72%+10 pts
- Q411:30Jaden Ivey makes 28-foot three point jumper (Marcus Sasser assists)DET 99 – 88 LAL · DET 83% → 90% +7DET 83% → 90%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DET -2.5
- ML DET -148 / LAL +124
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -1.5
- DET 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- DET: Elo 56.5%, market 57.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -134
- LAL +134 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 118.0 – 115.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1575 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +31 | −1 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +46 Elo | DET 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 55.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 57.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30118.8 | Points scored | 117.213th of 30 |
| 5th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 116.917th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+6.0 | Margin | +0.315th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.0 | Offense rating | 116.57th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30109.2 | Defense rating | 116.224th of 30 |
| 11th of 30102.7 | Pace | 100.625th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 5th of 3011–6 | Road vs home | 8–513th of 30 |
| 30th of 301467 | Opponent Elo | 149717th of 30 |
| 8th of 301575 | Elo rating | 152512th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–15 | 17–13 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–14 | 9–7 |
| Underdog | 5–1 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 16–16 | 19–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–2 LAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.