Denver Nuggets at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints27
- Jamal MurrayAssists16
- Jamal MurrayRebounds6
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points27
- Terance MannAssists6
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game115–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter115–127
- Q423.3Peyton Watson makes 18-foot pullup jump shot115–127
- Q433.5Noah Clowney makes free throw 2 of 2113–127
- Q433.5Noah Clowney makes free throw 1 of 2113–126
- Q433.5Tim Hardaway Jr. personal foul113–125
- Q446.8Tim Hardaway Jr. makes free throw 2 of 2113–125
- Q446.8Nuggets offensive team rebound112–125
- Q446.8Tim Hardaway Jr. misses free throw 1 of 2112–125
- Q446.8Egor Demin personal foul112–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:21Jalen Pickett makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bruce Brown assists)DEN 36 – 38 BKN · DEN 43% → 50% +8DEN 43% → 50%+8 pts
- Q26:54Michael Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Drake Powell assists)DEN 38 – 43 BKN · BKN 50% → 58% +8BKN 50% → 58%+8 pts
- Q26:00Jamal Murray makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot (Peyton Watson assists)DEN 41 – 45 BKN · DEN 37% → 45% +8DEN 37% → 45%+8 pts
- Q24:25Egor Demin makes 29-foot three point jumper (Michael Porter Jr. assists)DEN 43 – 51 BKN · BKN 59% → 66% +8BKN 59% → 66%+8 pts
- Q39:41Noah Clowney makes 24-foot three point jumper (Day'Ron Sharpe assists)DEN 56 – 66 BKN · BKN 67% → 75% +8BKN 67% → 75%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -2.5
- ML DEN -142 / BKN +120
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -1.5
- DEN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- DEN: Elo 56.5%, market 56.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -129
- BKN +129 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 113.5 – 111.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1629 | 1395 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −113 | +39 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +45 Elo | DEN 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 60.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 56.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30124.6 | Points scored | 108.930th of 30 |
| 21st of 30117.9 | Points allowed | 114.38th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+6.8 | Margin | −5.325th of 30 |
| 1st of 30122.3 | Offense rating | 109.526th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 114.919th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30101.0 | Pace | 99.527th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 4th of 3013–6 | Road vs home | 4–1330th of 30 |
| 24th of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 149320th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301629 | Elo rating | 139527th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−113 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+39 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–14 | 15–17 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–12 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 14–17 |
| Overs–unders | 22–12 | 13–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 4–0 BKN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.