Denver Nuggets at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints34
- Jamal MurrayAssists7
- Jamal MurrayRebounds6
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints33
- Darius GarlandAssists8
- Jarrett AllenRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–112
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–112
- Q40.0Nuggets offensive team rebound108–112
- Q40.0Jamal Murray misses running pullup jump shot108–112
- Q45.3Darius Garland makes free throw 2 of 2108–113
- Q45.3Darius Garland makes free throw 1 of 2108–112
- Q45.3Peyton Watson personal foul108–111
- Q45.3Bruce Brown enters the game for DaRon Holmes II108–111
- Q45.3Lonzo Ball enters the game for Jarrett Allen108–111
- Q45.3Cavaliers Full timeout108–111
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:48Craig Porter Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Lonzo Ball assists)DEN 101 – 97 CLE · CLE 35% → 49% +14CLE 35% → 49%+14 pts
- Q44:43Peyton Watson makes driving layup (Tim Hardaway Jr. assists)DEN 105 – 101 CLE · DEN 50% → 63% +13DEN 50% → 63%+13 pts
- Q44:21De'Andre Hunter makes 11-foot driving floating jump shot (Darius Garland assists)DEN 105 – 103 CLE · CLE 36% → 49% +13CLE 36% → 49%+13 pts
- Q42:13Darius Garland makes 26-foot three point jumper (Donovan Mitchell assists)DEN 105 – 107 CLE · CLE 50% → 76% +27CLE 50% → 76%+27 pts
- Q442.1Donovan Mitchell makes 1-foot dunk (Jarrett Allen assists)DEN 105 – 109 CLE · CLE 84% → 97% +13CLE 84% → 97%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -13.5
- ML DEN +575 / CLE -850
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 77%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -6
- CLE 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 71.9%, market 85.8%
- Fair odds
- CLE -604
- DEN +604 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 113.5 – 127.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1633 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −170 | +40 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +163 Elo | CLE 71.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 78.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 77.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 85.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30125.1 | Points scored | 119.68th of 30 |
| 21st of 30118.0 | Points allowed | 117.117th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+7.1 | Margin | +2.510th of 30 |
| 1st of 30122.7 | Offense rating | 114.810th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30115.7 | Defense rating | 112.415th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30101.0 | Pace | 103.58th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3013–5 | Road vs home | 12–813th of 30 |
| 24th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 148622nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301633 | Elo rating | 154911th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−170 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+40 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–14 | 12–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 15–12 | 9–20 |
| Underdog | 4–2 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 22–11 | 17–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 1–3 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.