Phoenix Suns at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Suns- Devin BookerPoints32
- Collin GillespieAssists5
- Jordan GoodwinRebounds15
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints34
- Donovan MitchellAssists7
- Jarrett AllenRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–129
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–129
- Q47.0shot clock turnover113–129
- Q431.1Khaman Maluach out of bounds bad pass turnover113–129
- Q441.7Jamaree Bouyea defensive rebound113–129
- Q444.3Thomas Bryant misses 26-foot three point jumper113–129
- Q448.3Cavaliers offensive team rebound113–129
- Q448.3Rasheer Fleming blocks Jaylon Tyson 's 1-foot running layup113–129
- Q448.5Nae'Qwan Tomlin defensive rebound113–129
- Q454.0Nae'Qwan Tomlin blocks Jamaree Bouyea 's 3-foot driving layup113–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:34Sam Merrill makes 24-foot three pointerPHX 74 – 82 CLE · CLE 77% → 83% +7CLE 77% → 83%+7 pts
- Q33:02Ryan Dunn makes 23-foot three point jumper (Oso Ighodaro assists)PHX 84 – 88 CLE · PHX 18% → 26% +8PHX 18% → 26%+8 pts
- Q32:40Jaylon Tyson makes 25-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)PHX 84 – 91 CLE · CLE 74% → 83% +8CLE 74% → 83%+8 pts
- Q31:27Collin Gillespie makes 23-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)PHX 87 – 91 CLE · PHX 17% → 26% +9PHX 17% → 26%+9 pts
- Q333.0Sam Merrill makes 22-foot three point jumper (Evan Mobley assists)PHX 89 – 94 CLE · CLE 68% → 78% +10CLE 68% → 78%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -6.5
- ML PHX +210 / CLE -258
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- CLE 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −18.9 pts
- CLE: Elo 50.2%, market 69.1%
- Fair odds
- CLE -223
- PHX +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHX 113.0 – 119.5 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHX | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1578 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +4 | +24 | PHX: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | CLE crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +1 Elo | CLE 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 62.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 61.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 69.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHX | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30115.1 | Points scored | 119.47th of 30 |
| 6th of 30113.3 | Points allowed | 117.318th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+1.8 | Margin | +2.111th of 30 |
| 15th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 114.610th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 112.615th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30101.0 | Pace | 103.48th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 12th of 309–8 | Road vs home | 11–814th of 30 |
| 8th of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 148224th of 30 |
| 7th of 301578 | Elo rating | 153512th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Suns
+4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHX |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–10 | 11–23 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–2 | 8–20 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders | 14–18 | 16–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHX 3–1 CLE in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.