Denver Nuggets at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Peyton WatsonPoints24
- Jamal MurrayAssists6
- Jonas ValanciunasRebounds9
Raptors- Brandon IngramPoints30
- Scottie BarnesAssists10
- Scottie BarnesRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–103
- Q40.0(00:00) [Nuggets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)106–103
- Q41.5Scottie Barnes defensive rebound106–103
- Q42.7Bruce Brown misses free throw 2 of 2106–103
- Q42.7Nuggets offensive team rebound106–103
- Q42.7Bruce Brown misses free throw 1 of 2106–103
- Q42.7Immanuel Quickley personal foul106–103
- Q42.7Bruce Brown defensive rebound106–103
- Q45.1RJ Barrett misses 27-foot three point step back jumpshot106–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:40Brandon Ingram makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jamal Shead assists)DEN 98 – 98 TOR · TOR 37% → 56% +20TOR 37% → 56%+20 pts
- Q420.2Immanuel Quickley makes free throw 2 of 2DEN 102 – 101 TOR · TOR 12% → 28% +17TOR 12% → 28%+17 pts
- Q419.5Spencer Jones makes free throw 1 of 2DEN 103 – 101 TOR · DEN 72% → 89% +17DEN 72% → 89%+17 pts
- Q414.9Brandon Ingram makes driving dunkDEN 104 – 103 TOR · TOR 2% → 25% +23TOR 2% → 25%+23 pts
- Q413.7Jamal Murray makes layup (Bruce Brown assists)DEN 106 – 103 TOR · DEN 76% → 99% +22DEN 76% → 99%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -7.5
- ML DEN +220 / TOR -270
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR -1.5
- TOR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −13.2 pts
- TOR: Elo 56.8%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -234
- DEN +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 111.0 – 118.5 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1626 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −161 | +20 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +47 Elo | TOR 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 59.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30125.7 | Points scored | 114.123rd of 30 |
| 21st of 30118.5 | Points allowed | 112.75th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+7.3 | Margin | +1.413th of 30 |
| 1st of 30123.2 | Offense rating | 112.520th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.0 | Defense rating | 111.16th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30101.1 | Pace | 100.824th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3012–5 | Road vs home | 10–714th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301485 | Opponent Elo | 148226th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301626 | Elo rating | 145618th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−161 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–14 | 16–18 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–12 | 8–12 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 22–10 | 13–21 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 4–0 TOR in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.