Los Angeles Lakers at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- LeBron JamesPoints30
- Luka DoncicAssists10
- Deandre AytonRebounds11
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints42
- Derik QueenAssists8
- Derik QueenRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–103
- Q44.3Derik Queen offensive rebound111–103
- Q44.3Trey Murphy III misses 26-foot three point jumper111–103
- Q410.1Jake LaRavia makes 4-foot running dunk (Marcus Smart assists)111–103
- Q417.6Trey Murphy III makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshot109–103
- Q423.2Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2109–100
- Q423.2Luka Doncic makes free throw 1 of 2108–100
- Q423.2Micah Peavy personal foul107–100
- Q424.0Deandre Ayton vs. Trey Murphy III (Jake LaRavia gains possession)107–100
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q36:58Trey Murphy III makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jose Alvarado assists)LAL 65 – 67 NO · NO 30% → 46% +16NO 30% → 46%+16 pts
- Q411:41LeBron James makes 25-foot three point jumper (Marcus Smart assists)LAL 82 – 86 NO · LAL 30% → 42% +12LAL 30% → 42%+12 pts
- Q410:04LeBron James makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotLAL 87 – 86 NO · LAL 49% → 62% +13LAL 49% → 62%+13 pts
- Q48:28Dalton Knecht makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jarred Vanderbilt assists)LAL 91 – 88 NO · LAL 57% → 71% +14LAL 57% → 71%+14 pts
- Q43:39Luka Doncic makes 22-foot three point jumperLAL 100 – 93 NO · LAL 81% → 92% +12LAL 81% → 92%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -5.5
- ML LAL -225 / NO +185
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -4
- LAL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- LAL: Elo 65.6%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- LAL -197
- NO +197 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 125.5 – 120.0 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 245.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1334 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +5 | +24 | LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | LAL crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | LAL +112 Elo | LAL 65.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 65.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 30117.3 | Points scored | 115.220th of 30 |
| 18th of 30117.3 | Points allowed | 123.128th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | −8.027th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 111.025th of 30 |
| 25th of 30116.2 | Defense rating | 118.728th of 30 |
| 24th of 30100.9 | Pace | 102.611th of 30 |
| 15th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3012–5 | Road vs home | 6–1629th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15233rd of 30 |
| 13th of 301525 | Elo rating | 133430th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
+24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 19–14 | 20–17 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 11–7 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 8–7 | 18–17 |
| Overs–unders | 21–12 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 8–1 NO in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Nov 30NO 121 @ LAL 133Picked LAL 89%Hit
- Nov 14LAL 118 @ NO 104Picked LAL 79%Hit
- Apr 4NO 108 @ LAL 124Picked LAL 90%Hit
- Mar 4NO 115 @ LAL 136Picked LAL 73%Hit
- Nov 16LAL 104 @ NO 99Picked LAL 74%Hit
- Apr 14LAL 124 @ NO 108Picked LAL 52%Hit
- Feb 9NO 122 @ LAL 139Picked NO 54%Miss
- Dec 31LAL 109 @ NO 129Picked NO 62%Hit