Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaren Jackson Jr.Points25
- Ja MorantAssists11
- Santi AldamaRebounds7
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints34
- Luka DoncicAssists8
- LeBron JamesRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–128
- Q45.2Ja Morant personal foul121–128
- Q410.3Santi Aldama makes 2-foot driving dunk (Ja Morant assists)121–128
- Q412.9Luka Doncic bad pass
turnover (Ja Morant steals)119–128
- Q428.2Jaylen Wells makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)119–128
- Q435.0LeBron James makes driving layup (Jake LaRavia assists)116–128
- Q437.3Jake LaRavia offensive rebound116–126
- Q439.8Marcus Smart misses 23-foot three point jumper116–126
- Q452.3Jake LaRavia defensive rebound116–126
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q322.1Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)MEM 96 – 96 LAL · MEM 31% → 43% +12MEM 31% → 43%+12 pts
- Q48:37Marcus Smart makes 25-foot three pointerMEM 101 – 105 LAL · LAL 61% → 74% +13LAL 61% → 74%+13 pts
- Q48:24GG Jackson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)MEM 104 – 105 LAL · MEM 26% → 39% +13MEM 26% → 39%+13 pts
- Q44:46Luka Doncic makes 8-foot fade away jump shotMEM 110 – 113 LAL · LAL 61% → 73% +12LAL 61% → 73%+12 pts
- Q44:13Jarred Vanderbilt makes 23-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)MEM 110 – 116 LAL · LAL 74% → 88% +14LAL 74% → 88%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -5.5
- ML MEM +170 / LAL -205
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- LAL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.0 pts
- LAL: Elo 50.5%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- LAL -181
- MEM +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 118.0 – 123.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 241.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +15 | −12 | MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +4 Elo | LAL 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 58.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30115.9 | Points scored | 116.814th of 30 |
| 16th of 30116.5 | Points allowed | 117.318th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.416th of 30 |
| 25th of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 116.07th of 30 |
| 8th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 116.525th of 30 |
| 6th of 30103.8 | Pace | 100.625th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–622nd of 30 |
| 13th of 308–9 | Road vs home | 8–614th of 30 |
| 13th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 149817th of 30 |
| 14th of 301516 | Elo rating | 151115th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–18 | 17–14 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 9–5 | 9–7 |
| Underdog | 6–13 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 13–20 | 20–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 2–7 LAL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Oct 31LAL 117 @ MEM 112Picked LAL 55%Hit
- Mar 29LAL 134 @ MEM 127Picked MEM 50%Miss
- Dec 15MEM 110 @ LAL 116Picked MEM 54%Miss
- Nov 13MEM 123 @ LAL 128Picked LAL 73%Hit
- Nov 6LAL 114 @ MEM 131Picked MEM 60%Hit
- Apr 12LAL 123 @ MEM 120Picked LAL 68%Hit
- Mar 27LAL 136 @ MEM 124Picked MEM 50%Miss
- Jan 5MEM 127 @ LAL 113Picked LAL 63%Miss