Philadelphia 76ers at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints34
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists12
- Joel EmbiidRebounds10
Grizzlies- Ja MorantPoints40
- Cam SpencerAssists5
- Cedric CowardRebounds16
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game139–136
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime139–136
- OT0.3Grizzlies offensive team rebound139–136
- OT0.3Cedric Coward misses 25-foot three point jumper139–136
- OT1.776ers Full timeout139–136
- OT1.7Grizzlies Full timeout139–136
- OT2.2VJ Edgecombe makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)139–136
- OT18.376ers Full timeout136–136
- OT18.3Ja Morant makes two point shot136–136
- OT29.1Cedric Coward defensive rebound136–134
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q459.6Ja Morant makes 6-foot fade away jump shotPHI 128 – 128 MEM · MEM 23% → 50% +26MEM 23% → 50%+26 pts
- OT1:49Paul George makes driving layupPHI 134 – 134 MEM · PHI 30% → 51% +20PHI 30% → 51%+20 pts
- OT1:18Joel Embiid makes 12-foot pullup jump shot (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 136 – 134 MEM · PHI 50% → 74% +24PHI 50% → 74%+24 pts
- OT18.3Ja Morant makes two point shotPHI 136 – 136 MEM · MEM 9% → 50% +40MEM 9% → 50%+40 pts
- OT2.2VJ Edgecombe makes 25-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 139 – 136 MEM · PHI 50% → >99% +50PHI 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -1.5
- ML PHI -122 / MEM +102
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -3
- PHI 38%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.5 pts
- PHI: Elo 38.1%, market 52.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -111
- MEM +111 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 118.5 – 117.0 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1435 | 1523 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +73 | +33 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · MEM: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +84 Elo | MEM 61.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 51.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 52.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 52.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30115.7 | Points scored | 115.320th of 30 |
| 14th of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 115.815th of 30 |
| 16th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.617th of 30 |
| 21st of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 110.725th of 30 |
| 12th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 111.37th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.8 | Pace | 103.76th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 11th of 307–6 | Road vs home | 7–820th of 30 |
| 20th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 150513th of 30 |
| 19th of 301435 | Elo rating | 152314th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+73 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 18–12 | 15–17 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–7 | 9–5 |
| Underdog | 9–5 | 6–12 |
| Overs–unders | 15–15 | 12–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–3 MEM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.