Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Grizzlies- Jaylen WellsPoints23
- Cam SpencerAssists9
- Jock LandaleRebounds10
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints36
- LeBron JamesAssists10
- Luka DoncicRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game114–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter114–120
- Q42.6LeBron James defensive rebound114–120
- Q42.6Jaylen Wells misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot114–120
- Q46.6Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2114–120
- Q46.6Luka Doncic makes free throw 1 of 2114–119
- Q46.6Santi Aldama personal take foul114–118
- Q49.5Jaylen Wells makes 26-foot three point jumper (Santi Aldama assists)114–118
- Q414.9Grizzlies Full timeout111–118
- Q414.9Marcus Smart makes free throw 2 of 2111–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:38LeBron James makes 27-foot three point jumperMEM 91 – 90 LAL · LAL 37% → 52% +14LAL 37% → 52%+14 pts
- Q45:29Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 27-foot three pointer (Jaren Jackson Jr. assists)MEM 99 – 98 LAL · MEM 33% → 51% +18MEM 33% → 51%+18 pts
- Q45:12Luka Doncic makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Jake LaRavia assists)MEM 99 – 100 LAL · LAL 49% → 61% +12LAL 49% → 61%+12 pts
- Q44:50LeBron James makes running layup (Deandre Ayton assists)MEM 99 – 102 LAL · LAL 62% → 73% +12LAL 62% → 73%+12 pts
- Q42:35Luka Doncic makes 33-foot three point jumper (Jake LaRavia assists)MEM 103 – 109 LAL · LAL 78% → 93% +15LAL 78% → 93%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -5.5
- ML MEM +180 / LAL -218
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -2.5
- LAL 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.3 pts
- LAL: Elo 59.5%, market 65.7%
- Fair odds
- LAL -192
- MEM +192 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MEM 116.5 – 122.0 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MEM | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −19 | 0 | MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAL: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +67 Elo | LAL 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 68.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 67.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 65.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MEM | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30116.0 | Points scored | 117.214th of 30 |
| 17th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 117.419th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.9 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 25th of 30110.9 | Offense rating | 116.17th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 116.325th of 30 |
| 4th of 30103.9 | Pace | 100.924th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 16th of 308–10 | Road vs home | 9–613th of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149915th of 30 |
| 16th of 301507 | Elo rating | 151913th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Grizzlies
−19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MEM |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–19 | 18–14 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 9–5 | 10–7 |
| Underdog | 6–14 | 8–7 |
| Overs–unders | 14–20 | 21–11 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MEM 2–8 LAL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.
- Jan 2MEM 121 @ LAL 128Picked LAL 64%Hit
- Oct 31LAL 117 @ MEM 112Picked LAL 55%Hit
- Mar 29LAL 134 @ MEM 127Picked MEM 50%Miss
- Dec 15MEM 110 @ LAL 116Picked MEM 54%Miss
- Nov 13MEM 123 @ LAL 128Picked LAL 73%Hit
- Nov 6LAL 114 @ MEM 131Picked MEM 60%Hit
- Apr 12LAL 123 @ MEM 120Picked LAL 68%Hit
- Mar 27LAL 136 @ MEM 124Picked MEM 50%Miss