New Orleans Pelicans at Miami Heat, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints27
- Jordan PooleAssists8
- Trey Murphy IIIRebounds8
Heat- Norman PowellPoints34
- Pelle LarssonAssists6
- Kel'el WareRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–125
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–125
- Q421.5Derik Queen defensive rebound106–125
- Q424.9Kasparas Jakucionis misses driving floating jump shot106–125
- Q441.8Micah Peavy makes driving layup (Trey Alexander assists)106–125
- Q41:01Kasparas Jakucionis enters the game for Davion Mitchell104–125
- Q41:01Dru Smith enters the game for Norman Powell104–125
- Q41:01Myron Gardner enters the game for Bam Adebayo104–125
- Q41:01Simone Fontecchio enters the game for Pelle Larsson104–125
- Q41:01Norman Powell personal take foul104–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q23:59Trey Murphy III makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jordan Poole assists)NO 57 – 57 MIA · NO 26% → 33% +7NO 26% → 33%+7 pts
- Q239.8Trey Murphy III makes 26-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)NO 62 – 65 MIA · NO 20% → 26% +7NO 20% → 26%+7 pts
- Q236.1Norman Powell makes 26-foot three point jumper (Davion Mitchell assists)NO 62 – 68 MIA · MIA 74% → 80% +7MIA 74% → 80%+7 pts
- Q310:30Jeremiah Fears makes 24-foot three point jumper (Trey Murphy III assists)NO 69 – 70 MIA · NO 24% → 32% +8NO 24% → 32%+8 pts
- Q310:06Norman Powell makes 28-foot running jump shot (Davion Mitchell assists)NO 69 – 75 MIA · MIA 73% → 80% +7MIA 73% → 80%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Heat 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- MIA -7.5
- ML NO +240 / MIA -298
- Pre-line forecast
- MIA 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIA -7
- MIA 76%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- MIA: Elo 75.6%, market 71.8%
- Fair odds
- MIA -255
- NO +255 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 120.0 – 127.5 MIA
- Posted spread, posted total 247.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1341 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +22 | +44 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIA: Missing Jaime Jaquez Jr. −1 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | NO crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIA +196 Elo | MIA 75.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIA 74.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIA 74.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIA 71.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30115.4 | Points scored | 120.73rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30123.1 | Points allowed | 117.620th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−7.7 | Margin | +3.19th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.5 | Offense rating | 113.416th of 30 |
| 28th of 30118.9 | Defense rating | 110.53rd of 30 |
| 13th of 30102.3 | Pace | 106.01st of 30 |
| 23rd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–12 | Road vs home | 12–69th of 30 |
| 4th of 301524 | Opponent Elo | 15106th of 30 |
| 30th of 301341 | Elo rating | 150716th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+22 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Heat
+44 Elo- Jaime Jaquez Jr. right ankle sprain−1 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–16 | 20–15 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 2–0 | 7–8 |
| Underdog | 18–16 | 13–7 |
| Overs–unders | 21–15 | 17–18 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 1–3 MIA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.