Portland Trail Blazers at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints34
- Deni AvdijaAssists11
- Donovan ClinganRebounds15
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints35
- Jordan PooleAssists6
- Kevon LooneyRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–109
- Q49.4Micah Peavy makes 2-foot driving dunk (Jeremiah Fears assists)122–109
- Q413.4Caleb Love makes 25-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)122–107
- Q434.6Jordan Poole makes 27-foot three pointer (Jeremiah Fears assists)119–107
- Q440.0Jeremiah Fears offensive rebound119–104
- Q443.0Micah Peavy misses 23-foot three point jumper119–104
- Q447.0Zion Williamson defensive rebound119–104
- Q449.1Deni Avdija misses 18-foot floating jump shot119–104
- Q41:11(01:11) [Trail Blazers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)119–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:59Rayan Rupert makes 25-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)POR 40 – 41 NO · POR 48% → 55% +8POR 48% → 55%+8 pts
- Q27:41Deni Avdija makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotPOR 45 – 43 NO · POR 55% → 63% +7POR 55% → 63%+7 pts
- Q22:46Toumani Camara makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shaedon Sharpe assists)POR 56 – 51 NO · POR 62% → 70% +8POR 62% → 70%+8 pts
- Q37:05Jordan Poole makes 11-foot pullup jump shotPOR 74 – 65 NO · NO 11% → 19% +8NO 11% → 19%+8 pts
- Q35:52Kevon Looney makes tip shotPOR 74 – 67 NO · NO 14% → 23% +9NO 14% → 23%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- POR -3.5
- ML POR -162 / NO +136
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -1.5
- POR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- POR: Elo 57.0%, market 59.3%
- Fair odds
- POR -146
- NO +146 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 122.0 – 118.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1429 | 1351 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +1 | −6 | POR: Missing Jrue Holiday −20 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +49 Elo | POR 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 58.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 59.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 30116.2 | Points scored | 115.620th of 30 |
| 25th of 30120.2 | Points allowed | 123.128th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.1 | Margin | −7.527th of 30 |
| 25th of 30110.8 | Offense rating | 111.523rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.6 | Defense rating | 118.728th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30104.2 | Pace | 102.512th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 21st of 307–11 | Road vs home | 6–1528th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301533 | Opponent Elo | 15254th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301429 | Elo rating | 135129th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+1 Elo- Jrue Holiday right calf strain−20 Elo
Pelicans
−6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 17–17 | 20–15 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 3–9 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 14–8 | 18–15 |
| Overs–unders | 19–15 | 21–14 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 4–5 NO in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.
- Dec 11POR 120 @ NO 143Picked POR 60%Miss
- Nov 12POR 125 @ NO 117Picked POR 75%Hit
- Jan 8POR 119 @ NO 100Picked NO 53%Miss
- Nov 4POR 118 @ NO 100Picked NO 50%Miss
- Oct 27NO 103 @ POR 125Picked NO 69%Miss
- Oct 25NO 105 @ POR 103Picked NO 70%Hit
- Apr 9NO 110 @ POR 100Picked NO 68%Hit
- Mar 16POR 107 @ NO 126Picked NO 77%Hit