Philadelphia 76ers at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints29
- VJ EdgecombeAssists7
- Joel EmbiidRebounds9
Magic- Desmond BanePoints23
- Paolo BancheroAssists7
- Paolo BancheroRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–91
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–91
- Q422.3shot clock turnover103–91
- Q445.1Joel Embiid defensive rebound103–91
- Q446.6Noah Penda misses 24-foot three point jumper103–91
- Q41:05Wendell Carter Jr. defensive rebound103–91
- Q41:07Paul George misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot103–91
- Q41:27Anthony Black bad pass
turnover (Paul George steals)103–91
- Q41:30Magic offensive team rebound103–91
- Q41:30Noah Penda misses 22-foot three point jumper103–91
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:53Anthony Black makes 22-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)PHI 39 – 44 ORL · ORL 49% → 57% +8ORL 49% → 57%+8 pts
- Q310:00Tyrese Maxey makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Joel Embiid assists)PHI 58 – 54 ORL · PHI 59% → 67% +9PHI 59% → 67%+9 pts
- Q39:19Wendell Carter Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)PHI 58 – 59 ORL · ORL 38% → 48% +9ORL 38% → 48%+9 pts
- Q35:57Anthony Black makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Paolo Banchero assists)PHI 67 – 66 ORL · ORL 32% → 42% +10ORL 32% → 42%+10 pts
- Q31:36Tyrese Maxey makes 26-foot three point jumper (Quentin Grimes assists)PHI 80 – 72 ORL · PHI 73% → 81% +9PHI 73% → 81%+9 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -3.5
- ML PHI -155 / ORL +130
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 47%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -0.5
- PHI 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 47.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -140
- ORL +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 115.0 – 111.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +66 | +8 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +14 Elo | ORL 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 52.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30117.6 | Points scored | 116.615th of 30 |
| 15th of 30116.2 | Points allowed | 115.213th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+1.4 | Margin | +1.314th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 113.215th of 30 |
| 13th of 30112.1 | Defense rating | 111.912th of 30 |
| 17th of 30101.9 | Pace | 102.016th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 7th of 3010–6 | Road vs home | 12–56th of 30 |
| 18th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 20th of 301465 | Elo rating | 150214th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+66 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 22–13 | 15–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 12–8 | 10–18 |
| Underdog | 10–5 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders | 19–16 | 19–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–4 ORL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 9.
- Nov 25ORL 144 @ PHI 103Picked ORL 64%Hit
- Oct 27ORL 124 @ PHI 136Picked ORL 68%Miss
- Jan 12PHI 99 @ ORL 104Picked ORL 53%Hit
- Dec 6ORL 94 @ PHI 102Picked ORL 55%Miss
- Dec 4ORL 106 @ PHI 102Picked ORL 67%Hit
- Nov 15PHI 86 @ ORL 98Picked ORL 55%Hit
- Apr 12ORL 113 @ PHI 125Picked PHI 64%Hit
- Jan 19PHI 124 @ ORL 109Picked PHI 62%Hit