Washington Wizards at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- Tre JohnsonPoints20
- Malaki BranhamAssists8
- Marvin Bagley IIIRebounds9
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints28
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists8
- Joel EmbiidRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–131
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–131
- Q418.3(00:18.3) [Wizards] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL OVERTURNED)110–131
- Q418.3AJ Johnson makes 1-foot running dunk (Bub Carrington assists)110–131
- Q420.7Anthony Gill defensive rebound108–131
- Q424.4Malaki Branham blocks Justin Edwards 's 26-foot three point jumper108–131
- Q441.6Tristan Vukcevic lost ball turnover (Quentin Grimes steals)108–131
- Q448.6Adem Bona makes 1-foot dunk (Trendon Watford assists)108–131
- Q458.7Bub Carrington makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshot108–129
- Q41:08Jared McCain makes free throw 2 of 2105–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q28:43Tre Johnson makes 27-foot three pointer (AJ Johnson assists)WSH 41 – 37 PHI · WSH 21% → 26% +6WSH 21% → 26%+6 pts
- Q28:20Paul George makes 26-foot three point jumper (VJ Edgecombe assists)WSH 41 – 40 PHI · PHI 73% → 79% +6PHI 73% → 79%+6 pts
- Q26:19Paul George makes 28-foot three point jumper (VJ Edgecombe assists)WSH 47 – 45 PHI · PHI 70% → 76% +6PHI 70% → 76%+6 pts
- Q23:20Paul George makes 26-foot three point jumper (Dominick Barlow assists)WSH 51 – 54 PHI · PHI 79% → 85% +5PHI 79% → 85%+5 pts
- Q224.9Tre Johnson makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshotWSH 56 – 60 PHI · WSH 10% → 15% +4WSH 10% → 15%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -16.5
- ML WSH +575 / PHI -850
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 86%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -9.5
- PHI 82%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 82.0%, market 85.8%
- Fair odds
- PHI -604
- WSH +604 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 108.5 – 125.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1348 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | WSH on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −17 | +59 | WSH: Missing Khris Middleton −21 · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +263 Elo | PHI 82.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 86.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 86.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 85.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30113.6 | Points scored | 117.214th of 30 |
| 29th of 30124.0 | Points allowed | 116.415th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−10.4 | Margin | +0.915th of 30 |
| 27th of 30109.3 | Offense rating | 113.017th of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.3 | Defense rating | 112.212th of 30 |
| 9th of 30103.3 | Pace | 101.817th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 26th of 304–13 | Road vs home | 9–917th of 30 |
| 9th of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 29th of 301348 | Elo rating | 146020th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−17 Elo- Khris Middleton right knee−21 Elo
76ers
+59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 15–20 | 21–13 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 11–8 |
| Underdog | 14–18 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 18–17 | 18–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 1–8 PHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.
- Dec 2WSH 102 @ PHI 121Picked PHI 85%Hit
- Oct 28PHI 139 @ WSH 134Picked PHI 64%Hit
- Apr 9PHI 122 @ WSH 103Picked PHI 57%Hit
- Mar 26WSH 119 @ PHI 114Picked PHI 58%Miss
- Jan 8WSH 103 @ PHI 109Picked PHI 78%Hit
- Feb 10PHI 119 @ WSH 113Picked PHI 58%Hit
- Dec 11WSH 101 @ PHI 146Picked PHI 80%Hit
- Dec 6PHI 131 @ WSH 126Picked PHI 69%Hit