Denver Nuggets at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jalen PickettPoints29
- Jalen PickettAssists7
- Zeke NnajiRebounds8
76ers- Joel EmbiidPoints32
- VJ EdgecombeAssists9
- Joel EmbiidRebounds10
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game125–124
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime125–124
- OT0.176ers offensive team rebound125–124
- OT0.2Tyrese Maxey misses driving floating jump shot125–124
- OT5.3(00:05.3) [Nuggets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)125–124
- OT5.3Joel Embiid defensive goaltending violation125–124
- OT5.3Bruce Brown makes running layup125–124
- OT10.2Bruce Brown defensive rebound123–124
- OT10.7Spencer Jones blocks Joel Embiid's tip shot123–124
- OT11.1Joel Embiid offensive rebound123–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:58Quentin Grimes makes 23-foot three point jumper (Adem Bona assists)DEN 115 – 115 PHI · PHI 36% → 60% +25PHI 36% → 60%+25 pts
- Q42:29Bruce Brown makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Pickett assists)DEN 118 – 115 PHI · DEN 40% → 67% +27DEN 40% → 67%+27 pts
- Q41:32VJ Edgecombe makes 26-foot three pointerDEN 119 – 118 PHI · PHI 10% → 46% +36PHI 10% → 46%+36 pts
- OT1:26VJ Edgecombe makes 1-foot dunk (Paul George assists)DEN 123 – 124 PHI · PHI 45% → 69% +23PHI 45% → 69%+23 pts
- OT5.3Bruce Brown makes running layupDEN 125 – 124 PHI · DEN 10% → 88% +77DEN 10% → 88%+77 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 86%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -14.5
- ML DEN +575 / PHI -850
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -9
- PHI 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 81.4%, market 85.8%
- Fair odds
- PHI -604
- DEN +604 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 107.0 – 121.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1615 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | DEN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −238 | +89 | DEN: Missing Aaron Gordon −44, Christian Braun −25 · otherwise weaker than recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +256 Elo | PHI 81.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 84.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 84.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 85.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30124.3 | Points scored | 117.016th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30118.1 | Points allowed | 116.115th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+6.2 | Margin | +0.915th of 30 |
| 1st of 30122.2 | Offense rating | 112.818th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30116.1 | Defense rating | 112.012th of 30 |
| 25th of 30100.9 | Pace | 102.116th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 5th of 3013–7 | Road vs home | 9–816th of 30 |
| 25th of 301484 | Opponent Elo | 149818th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301615 | Elo rating | 146819th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−238 Elo- Aaron Gordon strained right hamstring−44 Elo
- Christian Braun sprained left ankle−25 Elo
76ers
+89 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DEN |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 20–15 | 21–12 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 15–13 | 11–7 |
| Underdog | 5–2 | 10–5 |
| Overs–unders | 23–12 | 17–16 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 3–1 PHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.